000 AXPZ20 KNHC 032154 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC MON DEC 03 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2100 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH FROM 05N77W TO 05N80W TO 09N84W TO 06N96W. ITCZ FROM 06N96W TO 08N120W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 120 NM OF ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 120W AND 130W. ...DISCUSSION... W OF 110W...A 1024 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES AREA REMAINS CENTERED NEAR 26N128W. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH 24 HOURS AS MID TO UPPER RIDGING BUILDS N OF 20N. ASCAT DATA FROM 18 UTC INDICATED 20 TO 25 KT TRADE WINDS FROM 08N TO 20N BETWEEN 125W AND 135W S OF THE SURFACE RIDGE. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OF THESE FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 120W AND 130W...AIDED IN PART BY A SHARP UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA TO 13N135W. NW SWELL COVERS THE MOST OF THE AREA W OF 110W...MIXING WITH FRESH NE SWELL IN THE AREA OF 20 TO 25 KT TRADES. CROSS-EQUATORIAL SE SWELL WILL PUSH AS FAR N AS 04N BY WED AND MIX WITH THE LONGER PERIOD NW SWELL. E OF 110W...LATEST SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATES GAP WIND FLOW THROUGH TEHUANTEPEC HAS DIMINISHED TO 20 KT OR LESS. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BRIEF PULSE OF 20 KT OR EVEN A LITTLE HIGHER LATE TONIGHT...BUT THE GENERAL PATTERN DOES NOT SUPPORT STRONG GAP WINDS THROUGH TUE. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO BY LATE TUE...AND DELIVER A ROUND OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR DOWN THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO...THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS AND INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BY TUE NIGHT. FUNNELING MAY ALLOW THESE WINDS TO REACH 30 KT BY EARLY WED WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 9 FT. LOOKING AHEAD...AS HIGH PRES BUILDS TO THE NORTH...THE GAP WINDS THROUGH TEHUANTEPEC WILL APPROACH GALE FORCE BRIEFLY BY THU MORNING. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO TO 20 KT DURING LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS THEN DIMINISH BELOW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH FRI. $$ CHRISTENSEN