000
AXPZ20 KNHC 020349
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN DEC 02 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N78W TO 06N84W TO 07N93W THEN 
ITCZ TO 08N120W TO 06N134W TO BEYOND 06N140W.  ISOLATED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM N OF AXIS FROM 103W TO 120W AND WITHIN 
60 NM OF AXIS W OF 137W. 

...DISCUSSION...
ALOFT...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N123W TO 23N135W 
BRINGS SWATH OF MOISTURE RIDING WEAK 45 KT SW JET CORE TOWARDS 
NORTHERN THIRD OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.  DRY SUBSIDING AIR MASS W OF 
TROUGH AXIS KEEPS NW PORTION OF BASIN QUITE DRY.  WEAK UPPER 
LEVEL CYCLONE AT 04N103W KEEPS SUBSIDING DRY AIR MASS S OF 05N W 
OF 120W.  E OF CYCLONE 20-30 KT JET CORE ADVECTS CONVECTIVE 
DEBRIS FROM MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ TO THE N INTO CENTRAL AMERICA 
AND SOUTHERN MEXICO.   

...AT THE LOWER LEVELS...
SWELLS GENERATED BY LARGE DEEP LAYER CYCLONE WELL N OF AREA 
CONTINUES TO PUSH SEAS TO 13 FT INTO NW CORNER OF BASIN AND 
PROPAGATING SE ACROSS REGIONAL WATERS WHILE SUBSIDING.  WAVES 
RUNNING LESS THAN MWW3 SOLUTION INDICATE WHILE EUROPEAN AND UK 
MODELS TEMPER THE WAVES TO 13-14 FT.  FORECAST LOWERS SEA HEIGHT 
MORE WITH THE LATTER MODELS.  BY LATE SUN 10-11 FT SWELLS SHOULD 
HAVE PROPAGATED ACROSS BASIN WATERS W OF 110W. 

A 1021 MB HIGH PRES CENTER AT 28N127W HAS RIDGE EXTEND TO 
15N107W.  PRES GRADIENT AGAINST ITCZ PROVIDE FOR MODERATE TO 
FRESH NE TRADEWINDS FROM 10N TO 20N W OF 120W. 

GAP WINDS...
STRONG TO NEAR GALE N WINDS FUNNEL THROUGH CHIVELA PASS INTO 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8-9 FT.  WINDS PEAK 
TONIGHT AND IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH THE HELP OF 
NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW...THEN DIMINISH TO A STRONG BREEZE 
THROUGH BEYOND FORECAST PERIOD.  ALL GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS 
MAINTAINS WINDS SHORT OF GALE FORCE...ALTHOUGH GUSTS ABOVE THAT 
MAY BE FELT. 

WINDS IN GULF OF PAPAGAYO CONTINUE TO PULSATE BETWEEN A MODERATE 
TO STRONG BREEZE...STRONGER MAINLY DURING LATE OVERNIGHT HOURS 
THEN DIMINISHING BELOW 20 KT DURING AFTERNOONS. 

$$
WALLY BARNES