000 AXPZ20 KNHC 012205 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC SAT DEC 01 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2100 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N78W TO 07N80W TO 07N90W THEN ITCZ TO BEYOND 05N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 75 NM N OF AXIS FROM 87W TO 118W AND WITHIN 180 NM N OF AXIS W OF 133W. ...DISCUSSION... ALOFT...WEAK ILL-DEFINED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SW PORTION OF BASIN HAS LITTLE IMPACT ON LOWER LEVEL CONDITIONS. WEAK UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE AT 04N103W KEEPS SUBSIDING DRY AIR MASS S OF 05N W OF 120W. E OF CYCLONE 20-40 KT JET CORE ADVECTS CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ TO THE N INTO CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO. ...AT THE LOWER LEVELS... SWELLS GENERATED BY LARGE DEEP LAYER CYCLONE WELL N OF AREA CONTINUES TO PUSH SEAS TO 17 FT INTO NW CORNER OF BASIN AND PROPAGATING SE ACROSS REGIONAL WATERS WHILE SUBSIDING. BY LATE SUN 8 FT SWELLS WOULD BE SPREAD ACROSS WATERS W OF 108W. A 1022 MB HIGH PRES CENTER AT 26N134W HAS RIDGE EXTEND TO 15N115W. PRES GRADIENT AGAINST ITCZ PROVIDE FOR MODERATE TO FRESH TRADEWINDS FROM 10N TO 25N W OF 120W. GAP WINDS... STRONG TO NEAR GALE N WINDS FUNNEL THROUGH CHIVELA PASS INTO GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8-9 FT. WINDS PEAK TONIGHT AND IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH THE HELP OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW...THEN DIMINISH TO A STRONG BREEZE THROUGH BEYOND FORECAST PERIOD. ALL GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS MAINTAINS WINDS SHORT OF GALE FORCE...ALTHOUGH GUSTS ABOVE THAT MAY BE FELT. WINDS IN GULF OF PAPAGAYO CONTINUE TO PULSATE BETWEEN A MODERATE TO STRONG BREEZE...STRONGER MAINLY DURING LATE OVERNIGHT HOURS THEN DIMINISHING BELOW 20 KT DURING AFTERNOONS. $$ WALLY BARNES