000 AXPZ20 KNHC 010346 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC SAT DEC 01 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0315 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N79W TO 08N91W TO 07N101W TO 06N109W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO THE ITCZ...CONTINUING TO 06N120W TO 06N131W TO 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF TROUGH BETWEEN 84W-92W...AND WITHIN 120 NM N OF TROUGH BETWEEN 95W-106W. ...DISCUSSION... ALOFT... NOW THAT THAT THE NRN PORTION OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT EARLIER WAS OVER THE FAR ERN PORTION OF THE PACIFIC HAS QUICKLY MOVED INLAND THE WRN U.S. MOSTLY ZONAL FAST FLOW BEHIND IT HAS SET UP OVER ACROSS THE BASIN N OF ABOUT 22N. BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE STREAMING EASTWARD IN THE FAST ZONAL FLOW FROM WELL W OF 140W TO AS FAR E AS SRN CALIFORNIA AND BAJA CALIFORNIA. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NRN BAJA CALIFORNIA SW TO 23N123W TO 16N130W TO NEAR 06N140W. TO THE SE OF THE SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH...BROAD MID/UPPER SCALE RIDGING IS P RESENT WITH A MEAN RIDGE AXIS THAT STRETCHES FROM AN ANTICYCLONE OVER NRN VENEZUELA W TO NW COLOMBIA...AND NW TO 11N93W TO 13N100W TO 17N114W. SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS...DEBRIS FROM CONVECTION RELATED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH...ARE STREAMING NNE TOWARDS CENTRAL MERCIA AND MOST OF MEXICO S OF 19N. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY MODERATE SUBSIDENCE WITH ASSOCIATED DRY AND STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE OUTSIDE THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS. BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING NE TOWARDS SRN BAJA CALIFORNIA ARE ALSO AHEAD OF THE SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH. LITTLE CHANGES ARE EXPECT WITH THE OVERALL UPPER PATTERN THROUGH SAT...THEN ON SUN ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS ON THE NRN STREAM ENERGY TO THE N OF THE AREA AND EXTENDS NE TO SE FROM NRN BAJA CALIFORNIA TO NEAR 16N136W. AT THE SURFACE... THE...WINTER TYPE...LARGE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE WELL N OF THE REGION IS GENERATING LARGE NW SWELLS INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA THAT RESULTING IN 15-20 FT SEAS IN THE NW CORNER OF THE AREA. THESE VERY HAZARDOUS SEA CONDITIONS ARE PRIMARILY CONFINED TO N OF 28N W OF 128W WITH SEAS OF 11 TO 16 FT ELSEWHERE NW OF LINE FROM 30N122W TO 19N140W. THESE SWELLS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT 48 HRS. BY SUNDAY MORNING...SWELL FROM THIS EVENT OF AT LEAST 8 FT SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT WILL COVER MOST OF THE REGION WEST OF ABOUT 113W. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IS JUST NW OF THE AREA...BUT IS NOT FORECAST TO MAKE MUCH PROGRESS SE TO THE S OF 32N UNDER THE UPPER ZONAL FLOW THAT IS IN PLACE. A TRIO OF HIGH CENTERS IS ALIGNED NE TO SW...WITH THE FIRST ONE AS 1020 MB AT 32N120W...THE NEXT ONE ALSO AS 1020 MB AT 26N125W AND THE THIRD ON AS 1021 MB JUST W OF THE AREA AT 24N142W. A RATHER WEAK PRES PATTERN IS RELATED TO THESE HIGHS. THE HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO DISSIPATE IN 24 HRS. A WEAK TROUGH IS ALONG 23N134W 18N137W WITH ONLY POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH IT. GAP WINDS... N TO NE WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT AS CURRENTLY BEING OBSERVED AT IXTEPEC MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO FUNNEL THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS...HOWEVER THESE WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TO 20 TO 25 KT OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HRS...THEN INCREASE AGAIN TO 30 KT IN 48 HRS. THE OTHER GAP WIND AREAS OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA SHOULD REMAIN WITH WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT AND SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT THROUGH TUESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY... THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF A NEW GULF OF PAPAGAYO GAP WIND EVENT OCCURRING...BUT LIKELY REMAINING BELOW GALE FORCE. $$ AGUIRRE