000
AXPZ20 KNHC 292215 CCA
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU NOV 29 2012

CORRECTED HIGH PRES INTENSITY UNDER ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2115 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 06N100W TO 06N110W 
WHERE LOW LEVEL WINDS SUGGEST IT TRANSITIONS TO THE ITCZ TO 
05N121W TO 06N130W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE TROUGH E OF 88W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM N OF THE TROUGH 
BETWEEN 92W-102W.

...DISCUSSION...

ALOFT...
A LARGE DEEP LAYER CYCLONE WELL N OF REGION NEAR 47N139W EXTENDS
A LONGWAVE TROUGH TO 32N136W AND SW TO W OF THE DISCUSSION AREA 
AT 17N140W. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IS EVIDENT N OF ABOUT 25N AND W 
OF 127W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT FAST APPROACHING
THE FAR NW SECTION OF THE AREA. THE FRONT EXTENDS ROUGHLY ALONG 
32N W OF 137W AS CLEARLY IDENTIFIED BY A ROPE TYPE CLOUD FEATURE
WITH POSSIBLE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS. DIVERGENCE AHEAD OF A 
SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOTED IN THE SE PERIPHERY OF THE LONGWAVE 
TROUGH IS RESULTING IN OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OVER THE AREA FROM 19N TO 
26N BETWEEN 116W AND A LINE FROM 30N121W TO 18N135W. DEBRIS 
MOISTURE FROM THIS ACTIVITY IS STREAMING EASTWARD TOWARDS TO 
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA...AND TO INLAND CENTRAL 
MEXICO. OVER THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA...BROAD 
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DAMPENING WITH TIME AS IT TRANSLATES EWD 
IS PRESENT N OF 19N AND E OF THE TROUGH. AN ASSOCIATED 
ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED AT 15N115W WITH A RIDGE WSW TO 18N140W. 
SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MODERATE TO STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE S OF 18N E OF 126W...AND S OF 13N W OF 126W.

OVER THE FAR SE PORTION...BROAD MID/UPPER RIDGING EXTENDS EWD
TO OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE NORTHERN PORTION OF S AMERICA.
THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH IT IS TRANSPORTING DEBRIS 
CLOUDS FROM THE MONSOON TROUGH CONVECTION NWD TOWARDS TO SE 
MEXICO AND THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. DRY AND STABLE ATMOSPHERIC 
CONDITIONS AS A RESULT OF THE SUBSIDENCE WITH THE MID/UPPER 
LEVEL RIDGING ARE PREVALENT THROUGHOUT THE SRN PORTION OF THE 
AREA WHERE ONLY SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS 
MOVING WWD ARE NOTED.

...ELSEWHERE AT SURFACE...

THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS 
ACROSS THE WRN AND CENTRAL WATERS WITH RESULTANT SEAS OF UP TO
14 FT...BUILDING TO 16 FT IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. A HIGH PRES CENTER 
OF 1022 MB IS ANALYZED AT 26N122W WITH A RIDGE WSW TO 24N140W. 
THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY DURING THE NEXT 24 
HRS...THE WEAKEN INTO 48 HRS. THE HIGH WILL TEND TO BLOCK THE 
FRONT FROM MOVING TOO FAR S INTO THE AREA...WITH ONLY ITS SRN 
SEGMENT EXPECTED TO BRUSH TO THE FAR NW WATER TONIGHT AND FRI AS 
IT DISSIPATES.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...
NE TO E WINDS OF 20-25 KT FUNNELING INTO THE BASIN THROUGH
THE MOUNTAIN GAP ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO LESS 20 KT OR LESS
BY SAT AS TRADES IN THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA DIMINISH.

$$
AGUIRRE