000
AXPZ20 KNHC 292205
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU NOV 29 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2115 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 06N100W TO 06N110W 
WHERE LOW LEVEL WINDS SUGGEST IT TRANSITIONS TO THE ITCZ TO 
05N121W TO 06N130W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE TROUGH E OF 88W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM N OF THE TROUGH 
BETWEEN 92W-102W.

...DISCUSSION...

ALOFT...
A LARGE DEEP LAYER CYCLONE WELL N OF REGION NEAR 47N139W EXTENDS
A LONGWAVE TROUGH TO 32N136W AND SW TO W OF THE DISCUSSION AREA 
AT 17N140W. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IS EVIDENT N OF ABOUT 25N AND W 
OF 127W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT FAST APPROACHING
THE FAR NW SECTION OF THE AREA. THE FRONT EXTENDS ROUGHLY ALONG 
32N W OF 137W AS CLEARLY IDENTIFIED BY A ROPE TYPE CLOUD FEATURE
WITH POSSIBLE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS. DIVERGENCE AHEAD OF A 
SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOTED IN THE SE PERIPHERY OF THE LONGWAVE 
TROUGH IS RESULTING IN OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OVER THE AREA FROM 19N TO 26N
BETWEEN 116W AND A LINE FROM 30N121W TO 18N135W. DEBRIS MOISTURE 
FROM THIS ACTIVITY IS STREAMING EASTWARD TOWARDS TO CENTRAL AND 
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA...AND TO INLAND CENTRAL MEXICO. OVER
THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA...BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
DAMPENING WITH TIME AS IT TRANSLATES EWD IS PRESENT N OF 19N AND
E OF THE TROUGH. AN ASSOCIATED ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED AT 15N115W
WITH A RIDGE WSW TO 18N140W. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE S OF 18N E OF 126W...AND S OF 13N 
W OF 126W.

OVER THE FAR SE PORTION...BROAD MID/UPPER RIDGING EXTENDS EWD
TO OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE NORTHERN PORTION OF S AMERICA.
THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH IT IS TRANSPORTING DEBRIS
CLOUDS FROM THE MONSOON TROUGH CONVECTION NWD TOWARDS TO SE MEXICO
AND THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. DRY AND STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS
AS A RESULT OF THE SUBSIDENCE WITH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING 
ARE PREVALENT THROUGHOUT THE SRN PORTION OF THE AREA WHERE ONLY
SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING WWD ARE NOTED.

...ELSEWHERE AT THE LOWER LEVELS...

THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS 
ACROSS THE WRNA ND CENTRA WATERS WITH RESULTANT SEAS OF UP TO 14 
FT...BUILDING TO 16 FT IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. A HIGH PRES CENTER 
1021 MB AT 26N120W BLOCKS EASTERLY INTRUSION OF AFOREMENTIONED 
COLD FRONT WHICH LACKS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WHEN DEEP LAYER 
CYCLONE SHIFTED N.  

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...
STRONG BREEZE CROSSING INTO BASIN THROUGH MOUNTAIN GAP EXPECTED 
TO DIMINISH TO A MODERATE BREEZE FRI AS 1010 MB LOW PRES CENTER 
OVER COLOMBIA WEAKENS.  

$$
AGUIRRE