000
AXPZ20 KNHC 290325
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU NOV 29 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS FROM 06N77W TO 08N85W TO 07N102W THEN ITCZ 
TO 06N110W TO 07N130W TO BEYOND 08N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS E OF 98W.

...DISCUSSION...
ALOFT...LARGE DEEP LAYER CYCLONE HAS MOVED NE TO 44N140W 
DRAGGING LONGWAVE TROUGH TO 32N140W TO 15N148W.  TROUGH SUPPORTS 
WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 32N122W TO 30N124W TO 22N140W.  
STRONG SUBSIDENCE DRIES AIR MASS W OF TROUGH WHILE 75 KT JET 
CORE ADVECTS ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE...CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM 
ITCZ...ACROSS BASIN UNTO SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND CENTRAL 
MEXICO.  SLANTED RIDGE CREST FROM TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA TO 
00N130W PROVIDES LARGE REGION OF DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT...BUT WITH 
BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRES 1022 MB UPLIFTING MECHANICS ARE NIL.  

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTEND FROM OAXACA MEXICO TO 
13N104W TO 00N102W WITH VERY DRY AIR MASS W OF AXIS CURTAILING 
ANY ITCZ W OF 106W.  PLENTY OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM SOUTH 
AMERICA INTRUDES INTO E PAC ALONG MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ LATITUDES 
WITH SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED E OF 98W.  

...ELSEWHERE AT THE LOWER LEVELS...
COLD FRONT FROM 30N122W TO 22N140W BRING FRESH WESTERLIES AND 
LARGE...18-21 FT...LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS BEHIND IT SPREADING S 
TO REACH 10N W OF 120W LATE FRI.  HIGH PRES CENTER 1022 MB AT 
26N119W BLOCKS EASTERLY INTRUSION OF COLD FRONT WHICH LOST UPPER 
LEVEL SUPPORT WHEN AFOREMENTIONED CYCLONE SHIFTED N.  COLD FRONT 
THEN DISSIPATES THU.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...
N-NE GALE FORCE WINDS HAVE PEAKED NEAR STORM FORCE EARLIER TODAY 
NOW EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DIMINISH FURTHER THROUGH LATE THU.  SEAS 
EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT FRI.  

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...
FRESH NE-E TRADES EXPECTED TO BECOME A STRONG BREEZE LATE 
TONIGHT THEN DIMINISH TO A MODERATE BREEZE LATE THU AS LOW PRES 
CENTER 1007 MB OVER COLOMBIA WEAKENS.  

$$
WALLY BARNES