000
AXPZ20 KNHC 281602
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED NOV 28 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...


THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE AREA OF THE 
COLOMBIA/PANAMA BORDER NEAR 07N78W...CONTINUING TO 06N79W...
09N85W 07N90W...AND 06N94W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 06N94W
TO 06N113W 08N120W 06N130W AND 7N140W. CONVECTIVE 
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 04N TO 06N TO THE EAST
OF 85W...AND FROM 5N TO 9N BETWEEN 88W AND 99W...SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 05N TO 07N BETWEEN 100W
AND 109W...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 05N TO 14N
BETWEEN 114W AND 140W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...

NORTHERLY GALE-FORCE WINDS FROM 35 TO 45 KNOTS ARE OBSERVED
CURRENTLY...IN AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...
REACHING NEAR 13N96W. THE MAXIMUM SEA HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED
TO REACH 15 FEET TODAY. NORTH-TO-NORTHEASTERLY 20 TO 30 KNOT 
WINDS ARE AROUND THE GALE AREA WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF THE LINE FROM 16N94.5W TO 14N96W AND FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN
95W AND 101W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2...
FOR MORE DETAILS.

THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...

THE 15 TO 20 KNOT NORTHEAST-TO-EAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO 
CONTINUE...WITH FREQUENT PULSES TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS THROUGH THE 
UPCOMING WEEKEND. WAVE GUIDANCE ALSO FLUCTUATES FROM MODEL RUN 
TO MODEL RUN BUT GENERALLY SUGGESTS SEAS OF 4 TO 5 FEET DURING
THE MOMENTS OF 15 TO 20 KNOT EASTERLY WIND FLOW. THE SEAS BUILD 
TO 6-9 FT A FEW HOURS AFTER THE 20 TO 25 KNOT WIND SURGES 
COMMENCE.

A DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 44N143W.
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA 
TO THE NORTH OF 26N BETWEEN 123W AND 140W. A FRONTAL TROUGH 
PASSES THROUGH 30N128W TO 23N140W. EXPECT 20 TO 30 KNOT 
SOUTH-TO-SOUTHWEST WINDS AND 11 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH 
OF 26N WITHIN 240 NM TO THE EAST OF THE FRONTAL TROUGH...AND 
NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND 8 TO 17 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS
IN NORTHWESTERLY SWELL TO THE NORTH OF 23N TO THE WEST OF THE 
TROUGH. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2...FOR 
MORE DETAILS.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 13N136W TO 17N134W TO 20N133W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG FROM 16N TO 20N BETWEEN 129W AND 134W.

A 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 26N119W. SURFACE 
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF 15N
BETWEEN 110W AND 126W.
  
$$
MT