000
AXPZ20 KNHC 272202
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE NOV 27 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH 07N78W TO 08N84W TO 6N92W THEN ITCZ AXIS 06N108W 
TO 09N118W TO 08N126W TO 10N135W TO BEYOND 10140W.  NO  
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION NOTED.

...DISCUSSION...
DEEP LAYER CYCLONE AT 37N138W PUSHES LONGWAVE TROUGH THROUGH 
32N140W TO 19N150W.  JET CORE 90 KT ADVECTS PLENTY OF TROPICAL 
MOISTURE INTO BASIN MAINLY WITHIN 240 NM SE OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY. 
TROUGH SUPPORTS COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 32N131W TO 22N140W.  

ILL-DEFINED ANTICYCLONE AT 10N124W PROVIDES AREA OF MINOR 
DIVERGENCE ABOVE ITCZ W OF 110W...WITH LITTLE OR NO SIGNIFICANT 
CONVECTION DEVELOPING.  SHARP MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH 
EXTEND FROM CENTRAL MEXICO ALONG 112W TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE 
AT 00N97W WITH VERY DRY AIR MASS WITHIN 5 DEG BOTH SIDE OF AXIS. 

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW E OF TROUGH AXIS REMAINS 
MOIST A ANTICYCLONE OVER SOUTH AMERICA PROVIDES ABUNDANT 
MOISTURE FROM THE CONTINENT.  

AT THE LOWER LEVELS...
BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRES DOME 1021 MB AT 27N120W DRIFT S-SE KEEP 
LID ON ANY SIGNIFICANT WIND OR CONVECTION IN CENTRAL E PAC.  
MAIN WEATHER OCCURS IN NW CORNER WHERE COLD FRONT EXTEND FROM 
30N132W TO 22N140W.  STRONG SW WINDS AHEAD OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY 
WITH 10 FT SEAS AND STRONG NW BEHIND FRONT BUILD SEAS TO 19 FT 
IN NW SWELL.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...CURRENT FRESH N BREEZE INCREASE TO 
GALE-FORCE WINDS EARLY TONIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT. 
MAXIMUM WINDS APPROACH STORM FORCE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WED 
THEN DIMINISH LATE THU TO A STRONG N-NE BREEZE THROUGH  
REMAINDER OF WEEK.  SEAS EXPECTED TO REACH 13-14 FT AT ITS PEAK. 

CROSS EQUATORIAL SE SWELL 7-9 FEET EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BELOW 8 
FT LATE TONIGHT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH NE WINDS WITH SEAS TO 8 FT EXPECTED 
LATER TODAY AND CONTINUE FOR NEXT 48 HOURS.
     
$$
WALLY BARNES