000 AXPZ20 KNHC 261518 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC MON NOV 26 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1545 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 07N77W TO 06N79W TO 08N85W TO 07N91W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 07N91W TO 06N96W TO 09N112W TO 08N122W TO 09N127W TO 09N134W TO 08N140W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 08N TO 10N BETWEEN 105W AND 110W...AND FROM 07N TO 10N BETWEEN 124W AND 135W...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 06N TO 08N BETWEEN 112W AND 117W...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 05N TO THE EAST OF 87W...IN BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED DEBRIS CLOUDS. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEAS RANGING FROM 5 TO 8 FEET ARE OBSERVED STILL. EXPECT WIND SPEEDS TO DIMINISH MORE TONIGHT TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS. REMNANT NORTHEASTERLY SWELL IS OBSERVED WITHIN THE AREA THAT IS BOUNDED FROM 07N TO 13N BETWEEN 97 AND 112W. THE SWELL IS MIXING WITH BOTH LONG PERIOD NORTHWESTERLY SWELL AND CROSS EQUATORIAL SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL. THE RESULT IS COMBINED SEAS FROM 7 TO 9 FEET. NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20-25 KT AGAIN IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON...RAPIDLY INCREASING TO A MINIMAL GALE AROUND SUNSET ON TUESDAY...AND INCREASING MORE TO 35 TO 45 KNOTS LATER ON TUESDAY AT NIGHT. THESE NORTHERLY GALE WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL JUST AFTER SUNRISE ON THURSDAY. THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE AT 20 TO 30 KNOTS DURING THE WEEKEND. THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH EASTERLY TRADEWINDS...THAT ARE BLOWING ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE INTO AND DOWNSTREAM FROM THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO IN THE RANGE OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS TODAY...AND THEN DIMINISH TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS TONIGHT. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS ON WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH THESE CONDITIONS PERSISTING LATER IN THE WEEK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NEAR 33N130W RIDGES SE TO 15N102W. NE TRADES SW OF THE RIDGE ARE AT 15-20 KT FROM 09-14N W OF 137W WITH SEAS TO 8 FT IN MIXED NE AND S SWELL. THESE SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT IN A FEW HOURS. LONG PERIOD NW SWELL IS MIXING WITH CROSS EQUATORIAL IN THE WATERS S OF 07N BETWEEN 100-125W RESULTING IN SEAS TO 9 FT. THIS AREA OF ENHANCED SEAS IS EXPECTED TO SHRINK FROM 08-12N BETWEEN 107-117W LATE TONIGHT AND FROM 09-12N BETWEEN 115-122W ON TUE NIGHT WHEN THE NW SWELL DECAYS AND PRIMARILY SWELL COMPONENTS WILL BE FROM THE NE AND SE. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT SE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING THE NW WATERS WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW ALREADY AT 20-25 KT OVER THE WATERS N OF 28N W OF 139W WITH SEAS 6-8 FT. THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM 30N136W TO 25N140W LATE TONIGHT PRECEDED BY SW WINDS 20-30 KT AND SEAS 8-10 FT WITHIN 240 NM E OF THE FRONT. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BEGIN TO BLOCK THE FRONT THEN EXTENDING FROM 30N132W TO 20N138W ON TUE NIGHT. HOWEVER S-SW WINDS AT 20-30 KT WITH SEAS 8-12 FT WILL CONTINUE TO THE N OF 25N WITHIN 300 NM E OF FRONT...WHILE W WINDS AT 20-25 KT WILL CONTINUE N OF 24N W OF FRONT. LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WILL BUILD SEAS HEIGHTS W OF THE FRONT FROM 8 FT TO A MAX OF 16 FT ALONG 30N. LATER IN THE WEEK THE FRONT WILL PASS N OF THE SURFACE HIGH WITH THE FRONTAL REMNANTS REACHING THE EXTREME NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA THU MORNING. THE LONG PERIOD NW SWELL...PRODUCING SEAS TO 8 FT...WILL ARRIVE AT NORTHERN BAJA THU NIGHT AND SOUTHERN BAJA LATE FRI AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT E OF THE SURFACE HIGH INCREASES THE NORTHERLY FLOW TO 15-20 KT ON THU-FRI. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE FAR NW WATERS FRI ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER 20-30 KT SW-W WIND SHIFT WITH GALE CONDITIONS REACHING AS FAR S AS 31N. LONG PERIOD NW SWELL RESULTING IN SEAS 8-16 FT WILL PROPAGATE SE ACROSS ALL THE PACIFIC WATERS W OF A LINE FROM THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA TO 07N123W LATE FRI. $$ MT