000 AXPZ20 KNHC 260330 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC MON NOV 26 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0300 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS FROM 06N78W TO 07N85W TO 06N92W. ITCZ AXIS FROM 06N92W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 120W AND 130W. ...DISCUSSION... W OF 110W... WEAK 1017 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 33N130W WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AHEAD OF A DEEP LAYER TROUGH DIGGING FROM THE N CENTRAL PACIFIC TOWARD THE U.S. WEST COAST. WHILE AN ASSOCIATED 1003 MB SURFACE LOW PRES AREA CENTERED NEAR 35N145W WILL MOVE NE AND STAY TO THE N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE LOW PRES TO 25N150W WILL SHIFT E OF 140W BY LATE MON. FRESH TO STRONG S TO SW WINDS ARE ALREADY NOTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND THESE WINDS WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA AND TOWARD THE WEAKENING HIGH PRES. BY TUE...GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE MID/UPPER SUPPORT BECOMING MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED. THE GFS SOLUTION CONTINUES BE A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS SHOWING A MID/UPPER LOW CUTTING OFF BY LATE TUE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. THE GFS SHOWS NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS BOTH AHEAD AND BEHIND THE FRONT. THE ASSOCIATED WW3 SHOWS LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WITH HEIGHTS AS HIGH TO 16 FT. GIVEN THE NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH ALOFT SUPPORTING STRONGER WINDS...AND LONG FETCH AND DURATION FOR THE SWELL...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FAVORS THE MORE AGGRESSIVE GFS/WW3 SOLUTIONS. LOOKING AHEAD...THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOW ON WED FROM 32N123W TO 19N135W WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KT EITHER SIDE OF FRONT INTO THU. THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT SHOULD REACH THE EXTREME NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA AROUND SUNRISE ON THU WITH THE LONG PERIOD NW SWELL... PRODUCING SEAS TO 8 FT...ARRIVING AT NORTHERN BAJA LATE THU AND SOUTHERN BAJA LATE FRI. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE FAR NW WATERS MIDDAY TUE ACCOMPANIED BY A 20-30 KT SW-W WIND SHIFT. NOTE THAT IF GUIDANCE CONSENSUS CHANGES...A MINIMAL GALE WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 29N W OF 132W TUE INTO TUE NIGHT. IN ANY EVENT...LONG PERIOD NW SWELL RESULTING IN SEAS 8-16 FT WILL FOLLOW THIS STRONGER FRONT...PROPAGATING SE ACROSS THE WATERS W OF A LINE FROM THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA TO 07N140W LATE FRI. MEANWHILE FARTHER SOUTH W OF 110W...FROM 10N TO 15N W OF 130W...A RESIDUAL AREA OF FRESH TRADES S OF THE HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO DIMINISH. LONG PERIOD NW SWELL IN THE SAME VICINITY SIMILARLY CONTINUES TO SUBSIDE. E OF 110W... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS HIGH PRES OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EAST. SEAS TO 9 FT IN PART DUE TO NE AND E SWELL FROM THE GAP WIND EVENT PERSIST FARTHER WEST TOWARD THE EDGE OF THE WEAKENING PLUME NEAR 10N110W. WINDS WILL BE 20 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS GENERALLY LESS THAN 8 FT THROUGH 24 HOURS. THE REPRIEVE WILL BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER...AS COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE NW GULF OF MEXICO BY LATE TUE. ALTHOUGH THE FRONT WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH OF A CONTRAST WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR FUNNELING DOWN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TO INTRODUCE WINDS TO 30 KT BY TUE EVENING...AND POSSIBLY TO GALE FORCE ONCE AGAIN BY TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...SHIP AND SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM EARLIER TO DAY INDICATED FRESH TO STRONG GAP WINDS PERSIST IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. N TO NE WINDS IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE INTO AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO UNTIL LATE MON WHEN THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA SHOULD BREAK DOWN. EXPECT NE 15-20 KT WINDS ON MON NIGHT AND TUE...INCREASING TO 20-25 KT OVERNIGHT TUE NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE AGAIN BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA. FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK. $$ CHRISTENSEN