000
AXPZ20 KNHC 252142
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN NOV 25 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2130 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS FROM 06N78W TO 08N85W TO 06N90W. ITCZ 
AXIS FROM 09N120W TO 07N130W TO 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
STRONG FROM 03N TO 07N E OF 80W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
WITHIN 30 NM OF ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 106W AND 109W...AND BETWEEN 
118W AND 120W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION 
WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF ITCZ AXIS W OF 135W.   
 
...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...LATEST OBSERVATIONS FROM SALINA CRUZ NEAR 
THE COAST OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC INDICATE SUSTAINED AND PEAK 
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED SUBSTANTIALLY OVER THE PAST SEVERAL 
HOURS...CONSISTENT WITH EXPECTATIONS THAT WINDS WERE FALLING 
BELOW GALE FORCE OVER THE GULF AS HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA 
WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EAST. AS A RESULT...GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN 
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. SCATTEROMETER 
DATA FROM EARLIER TODAY CAPTURED THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE FRESH 
TO STRONG EASTERN PLUME EMANATING FROM THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC 
NEAR 11N110W. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH IN STRENGTH 
AND CONTRACT IN AREAL EXTENT THROUGH THE EVENING. SEAS ARE 
LIKELY STILL UP TO 12 FT IN THE GULF...AND SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW 
8 FT THROUGH 36 HOURS. BY 48 HOURS...WINDS WILL START TO 
INCREASE AGAIN OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...AS A WEAK COLD 
FRONT PUSHES INTO THE GULF...ENOUGH FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER AND 
DRIER AIR TO PUSH THROUGH THE ISTHMUS INTO THE PACIFIC WATERS. 
GALE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED MORNING.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...SHIP AND SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM EARLIER TO 
DAY INDICATED FRESH TO STRONG GAP WINDS PERSIST IN THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO. N TO NE WINDS IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE 
TO SURGE INTO AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO UNTIL LATE 
MON WHEN THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA SHOULD 
BREAK DOWN. EXPECT NE 15-20 KT WINDS ON MON NIGHT AND 
TUE...INCREASING TO 20-25 KT OVERNIGHT TUE NIGHT AS HIGH 
PRESSURE AGAIN BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND 
NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA. FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS WILL PERSIST 
THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK.    

1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR 34N132W EXTENDS TO THE SE 
A RIDGE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH 23N110W. THE ASSOCIATED E-NE SWELL 
IS MIXING WITH DAMPENING LONG PERIOD NW SWELL AND CROSS 
EQUATORIAL SE SWELL RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS OF 7-9 FT ACROSS 
THE PACIFIC WATERS FROM 09N TO 16N W OF 135W. WINDS SHOULD 
DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT AND SEAS SUBSIDE TO 6-7 FT IN THIS AREA BY 
MON AFTERNOON. 

FARTHER N...SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW AT 10-15 KT IS SETTING UP 
W OF THE RIDGE IN THE AREA N OF 23N W OF 135W...AND IS EXPECTED 
TO SHIFT TO S-SW AND INCREASE TO A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE BY MON 
MORNING IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT ARRIVING AT 30N140W AROUND 
MIDDAY MON. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM 32N131W TO 24N140W BY TUE 
MORNING ACCOMPANIED BY SW WINDS FRESH TO NEAR GALE WINDS AHEAD 
OF THE FRONT DIMINISHING TO A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE AND 
SHIFTING W BEHIND THE FRONT. SEAS AS HIGH AS 11 FT ARE EXPECTED 
THROUGH TUE MORNING. THIS INITIAL COLD FRONT WILL SLOW ON WED 
FROM 32N123W TO 19N135W WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KT 
EITHER SIDE OF FRONT. THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT SHOULD REACH THE 
EXTREME NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA AROUND SUNRISE ON THU WITH THE 
LONG PERIOD NW SWELL... PRODUCING SEAS TO 8 FT...ARRIVING AT 
NORTHERN BAJA LATE THU AND SOUTHERN BAJA LATE FRI. A SECONDARY 
COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE FAR NW WATERS MIDDAY TUE ACCOMPANIED 
BY A 20-30 KT SW-W WIND SHIFT. NOTE THAT IF GUIDANCE CONSENSUS 
CHANGES...A MINIMAL GALE WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED ACROSS THE 
WATERS N OF 29N W OF 132W TUE INTO TUE NIGHT. IN ANY 
EVENT...LONG PERIOD NW SWELL RESULTING IN SEAS 8-16 FT WILL 
FOLLOW THIS STRONGER FRONT...PROPAGATING SE ACROSS THE WATERS W 
OF A LINE FROM THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA TO 07N140W LATE FRI. 

$$
CHRISTENSEN