000 AXPZ20 KNHC 251513 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC SUN NOV 25 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1330 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N77W TO 08N84W TO 05N92W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 05N92W TO 08N100W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION LIES FROM 03N TO 07N E OF 80W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM N AND 60 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 102W AND 110W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION LIES WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS W OF 133W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THE 0636 UTC OSCAT PASS REPORTED MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THESE GALE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH LATER THIS MORNING. MAXIMUM WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO 20 KT BY MON MORNING. SHIP LADR4 SOUTH OF TEHUANTEPEC NEAR 12N96W REPORTED 20 KT NE WINDS AND 10 FT SEAS IN NE SWELL AT 1200 UTC THIS MORNING. THE NE SWELL THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDS SW TO 108W IS MIXING WITH BOTH LONG PERIOD NW SWELL AND CROSS EQUATORIAL SE SWELL. NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20-25 KT AGAIN TUE AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. WINDS SHOULD RAPIDLY INCREASE TO A MINIMAL GALE AROUND SUNSET TUE. THESE NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD PULSE AGAIN TO GALE FORCE TILL JUST AFTER SUNRISE THU. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...SHIP A8PQ8 NEAR THE NE COAST OF COSTA RICA AT 9.5N86W REPORTED 21 KT N WINDS AT 1200 UTC WHILE SHIP WABS REPORTED 18 KT NE WINDS WELL DOWNWIND OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO NEAR 10N91W AT 1300 UTC. FRESH TO STRONG N TO NE WINDS IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE INTO AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO UNTIL LATE MON WHEN THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA SHOULD BREAK DOWN. EXPECT NE 15-20 KT WINDS ON MON NIGHT AND TUE...INCREASING TO 20-25 KT OVERNIGHT TUE NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE AGAIN BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA. FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK. 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE NEAR 34N132W EXTENDS A RIDGE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH 25N130W TO 18N110W. AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG E-NE TRADES LIES SW OF THE RIDGE FROM 09N TO 14N W OF 130W. THE ASSOCIATED E-NE SWELL IS MIXING WITH DAMPENING LONG PERIOD NW SWELL AND CROSS EQUATORIAL SE SWELL RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS OF 7-9 FT ACROSS THE PACIFIC WATERS S OF 18N W OF 127W. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT AND SEAS SUBSIDE TO 6-7 FT IN THIS AREA BY MON AFTERNOON. FARTHER N...SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW AT 10-15 KT IS SETTING UP W OF THE RIDGE IN THE AREA N OF 23N W OF 135W...AND IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO S-SW AND INCREASE TO A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE BY MON MORNING IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT ARRIVING AT 30N140W AROUND MIDDAY MON. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM 32N131W TO 24N140W BY TUE MORNING ACCOMPANIED BY SW WINDS FRESH TO NEAR GALE WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT DIMINISHING TO A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE AND SHIFTING W BEHIND THE FRONT. SEAS AS HIGH AS 11 FT ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUE MORNING. THIS INITIAL COLD FRONT WILL SLOW ON WED FROM 32N123W TO 19N135W WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KT EITHER SIDE OF FRONT. THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT SHOULD REACH THE EXTREME NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA AROUND SUNRISE ON THU WITH THE LONG PERIOD NW SWELL... PRODUCING SEAS TO 8 FT...ARRIVING AT NORTHERN BAJA LATE THU AND SOUTHERN BAJA LATE FRI. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE FAR NW WATERS MIDDAY TUE ACCOMPANIED BY A 20-30 KT SW-W WIND SHIFT WITH POSSIBLE GALE CONDITIONS REACHING AS FAR S AS 31N. NOTE THAT IF GUIDANCE CONSENSUS CHANGES...A MINIMAL GALE WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 29N W OF 132W TUE INTO TUE NIGHT. IN ANY EVENT...LONG PERIOD NW SWELL RESULTING IN SEAS 8-16 FT WILL FOLLOW THIS STRONGER FRONT...PROPAGATING SE ACROSS THE WATERS W OF A LINE FROM THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA TO 07N140W LATE FRI. $$ SCHAUER/NELSON