000
AXPZ20 KNHC 250953
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN NOV 25 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0945 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH AXIS 07N77W TO 08N82W TO 06N93W. ITCZ AXIS 06N93W 
TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
NOTED WITHIN 75 NM OF 08.5N137.5W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION WITH OCCASIONALLY LIGHTNING IS OBSERVED WITHIN 30 NM 
OF THE COLOMBIAN COAST FROM 03-07N. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION 
IS OBSERVED FROM 06-11N BETWEEN 98-109W.   
 
...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...MINIMAL GALE WINDS CONTINUE IN AND 
DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. EXTENDED THE CURRENT GALE 
WARNING FOR AN ADDITIONAL 03 HOURS TILL 15 UTC TO CAPTURE THE 
USUALLY PEAK DRAINAGE FLOW AROUND SUNRISE. WINDS SHOULD 
GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO 20 KT BY LATE MON NIGHT. THE NE SWELL THAT 
CURRENTLY EXTENDS SW TO 110W IS MIXING WITH BOTH LONG PERIOD NW 
SWELL AND CROSS EQUATORIAL SE SWELL. NORTHERLY WINDS ARE 
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20-25 KT AGAIN TUE AFTERNOON RAPIDLY 
INCREASING TO A MINIMAL GALE AROUND SUNSET TUE. THESE NORTHERLY 
WINDS SHOULD PULSE AGAIN TO GALE FORCE TILL JUST AFTER SUNRISE 
THU.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH EASTERLY TRADES ACROSS THE WESTERN 
CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE INTO AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF 
OF PAPAGAYO AT 20-25 KT THROUGH LATE MON. THE AFFECTED AREA WILL 
GRADUALLY SHRINK FROM 85-92W TODAY TO 85-88W ON MON. EXPECT NE 
15-20 KT WINDS ON MON NIGHT AND TUE...INCREASING TO 20-25 KT 
LATE TUE NIGHT...WITH THESE CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH LATE 
IN THE WEEK.    

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NEAR 33N133W RIDGES SE TO 14N103W. NE 
TRADES SW OF THE RIDGE ARE AT 15-20 KT FROM 09-16N W OF 115W. 
THE ASSOCIATED NE SWELL IS MIXING WITH DAMPENING LONG PERIOD NW 
SWELL AND CROSS EQUATORIAL SE SWELL RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS OF
7-9 FT ACROSS THE PACIFIC WATERS S OF 18N BETWEEN 110-140W.  
WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT AND SEAS SUBSIDE TO 6-7 FT IN 
THIS AREA BY MON AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AT 10-25 KT IS 
SETTING SW OF THE RIDGE IN THE AREA N OF 22N W OF 135W...AND IS 
EXPECTED TO CLOCK TO S-SW AND INCREASE TO 20-25 KT LATE TONIGHT 
IN ADVANCE OF COLD FRONT ARRIVING AT 30N140W AT MIDDAY MON. THE 
FRONT WILL REACH FROM 32N133W TO 26N140W LATE MON NIGHT 
ACCOMPANIED BY A SW-W 20-30 KT WIND SHIFT WITH SEAS 6-9 FT. 

THIS INITIAL COLD FRONT WILL SLOW ON WED FROM 32N123W TO 19N135W 
WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KT EITHER SIDE OF FRONT. THE 
REMNANTS OF THE FRONT SHOULD REACH THE EXTREME NORTHERN BAJA 
PENINSULA AROUND SUNRISE ON THU WITH THE LONG PERIOD NW SWELL... 
PRODUCING SEAS TO 8 FT...ARRIVING AT NORTHERN BAJA LATE THU AND 
SOUTHERN BAJA LATE FRI. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE 
FAR NW WATERS MIDDAY TUE ACCOMPANIED BY A 20-30 KT SW-W WIND 
SHIFT WITH GALE CONDITIONS REACHING AS FAR S AS 31N. NOTE THAT 
IF GUIDANCE CONSENSUS CHANGES A MINIMAL GALE WARNING MAY BE 
REQUIRED ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 29N W OF 132W TUE INTO TUE 
NIGHT. IN ANY EVENT LONG PERIOD NW SWELL RESULTING IN SEAS 8-16 
FT WILL FOLLOW THIS STRONGER FRONT...PROPAGATING SE ACROSS THE 
WATERS W OF A LINE FROM THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA TO 07N140W 
LATE FRI. 
      
$$
NELSON