000
AXPZ20 KNHC 230354
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC FRI NOV 23 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 07N77W TO 08N83W TO 07N87W. THE 
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N97W TO 
09N122W TO 08N128W TO 09N132W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM OF ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 
125W AND 130W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...WHILE HIGH PRES OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF 
MEXICO CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST...THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE 
SW GULF OF MEXICO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IS STILL STRONG ENOUGH 
TO SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG GAP FLOW. SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM 18 
UTC INDICATED WINDS WERE AROUND 20 TO 25 KT. THIS WILL INCREASE 
TO 30 KT LATE TONIGHT WITH CONTRIBUTIONS FROM DRAINAGE EFFECTS. 
WINDS WILL AGAIN DIMINISH SLIGHTLY BY MIDDAY FRI...BUT A 
REINFORCING SURGE OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL PUSH ACROSS THE 
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS AND INTO THE 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BY LATE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY 
MORNING...INDUCING ANOTHER GALE EVENT COMMENCING AROUND 06 UTC 
SAT AND PERSISTING THROUGH SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN MORNING.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...ANOTHER GAP WIND EVENT IN THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO CONTINUES TO PRODUCE STRONG BREEZE CONDITIONS. AN ASCAT 
PASS FROM 16 UTC INDICATED 20 KT WINDS REACHING AS FAR AS 420 NM 
W OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. THIS EVENT SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE 
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH LITTLE CHANGE...BUT WITH THE TYPICAL 
DIURNAL VARIABILITY WITH WEAKER WINDS AND LOWER SEAS DURING THE 
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SHOW A BROAD LOW FORMING 
ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH ALONG 08N BETWEEN 90W AND 100W THROUGH 
FRI...BOTH A CAUSE AND AN ENHANCER OF OF THE PAPAGAYO PULSES 
JUST TO THE NORTH OF THIS AREA.  

FURTHER WEST...SCATTEROMETER PASSES FROM EARLIER TODAY INDICATED 
TRADE WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED SLIGHTLY FROM THE LAST COUPLE OF 
DAYS...WITH MAINLY 15 TO 20 KT NOTED FROM 10N TO 20N W OF 125W. 
1025 MB HIGH PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 31N132W WITH A RIDGE 
EXTENDING TO A SE TERMINUS NEAR 20N112W. THE PRES GRADIENT S OF 
THE RIDGE AND N OF THE ITCZ WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THESE WINDS 
ACROSS THE SAME GENERAL AREA THROUGH SAT.

LONG-PERIOD...12-14 SECOND NW SWELL WITH SIGNIFICANT WAVE 
HEIGHTS OF UP TO 12 FEET CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE INTO THE NW 
PORTION OF THE AREA AS MEASURED BY AN OVERNIGHT ALTIMETER PASS. 
THIS SET OF NW SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE TO THE 
SE...GRADUALLY DECAYING DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE NEXT 
NOTEWORTHY LONG-PERIOD SWELL EVENT MAY OCCUR BEGINNING NEXT 
WEDNESDAY.

$$
CHRISTENSEN