000
AXPZ20 KNHC 220915
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU NOV 22 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH FROM 10N78W TO 07N100W. ITCZ FROM 07N100W TO 
09N126W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM S 
OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 123W AND 135W.

...DISCUSSION...

STATIONARY 1024 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 29N128W. ANTICYCLONIC
WIND FLOW PREVAILS N OF 20N...WITH FRESH NW WINDS ALONG BAJA N 
OF 27N. SCATTEROMETER DATA AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS SHOW 25-30 KT 
WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC N OF 14N BETWEEN 94W AND 96W. 
MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY WINDS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE S OF 20N AND 
W OF 100W. A SMALL AREA OF FRESH NE TRADE WINDS IS LOCATED N OF 
THE ITCZ BETWEEN 127W AND 134W. MONSOONAL S-SW FLOW REMAINS 
CONFINED E OF 100W. FRESH NE WINDS DOWNSTREAM FROM THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO IS SUPPORTING A WEAK CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EMBEDDED IN 
THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 09N86W. 9-12 FT SEAS EXTEND DOWNWIND FROM
TEHUANTEPEC TO 12N98W...AND 8-11 FT SEAS ARE FOUND W OF LINE FROM
09N124W TO 23N124W TO 30N116W IN PRIMARILY NW SWELL.

HIGH PRES IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL SHIFT E THROUGH THU NIGHT...
ALLOWING THE PRES GRADIENT TO RELAX. ANOTHER SURGE OF COOL DRIER 
AIR WILL PUSH ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC BY LATE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING...INDUCING 
ANOTHER GALE EVENT FRI NIGHT OR EARLY SAT.

A GAP WIND EVENT IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO CONTINUES TO PRODUCE 
SUSTAINED FRESH AND OCCASIONALLY STRONG E-NE BREEZES. THIS EVENT 
SHOULD CONTINUE THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH LITTLE CHANGE...BUT 
WITH THE TYPICAL DIURNAL VARIABILITY WITH WEAKER WINDS AND LOWER 
SEAS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

LONG-PERIOD NW SWELL IN NW PORTION FROM A WINTER STORM SOUTH OF 
ALASKA WILL SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD AND GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVER THE 
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

$$
MUNDELL