000
AXPZ20 KNHC 191515
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON NOV 19 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 8N81W TO 6N93W. ITCZ 6N93W 9N110W TO 7N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM S OF AXIS 
FROM 121W-125W AND WITHIN 90 NM N AND 120 NM S OF AXIS FROM 
125W-137W. 

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA 
WITH AXIS FROM 32N127W TO 22N140W. DOWNSTREAM UPPER LEVEL TROUGH 
EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TO 32N117W TO 25N125W. AN 80-95 
KT JETSTREAM IS ON THE E SIDE OF THE TROUGH FROM 22N124W TO THE 
NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA. BROKEN/OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 
300 NM S OF THE JET AXIS. TRANSVERSE BANDING NOTED ON THE CIRRUS 
CLOUDS INDICATE POSSIBLE UPPER LEVEL TURBULENCE. MODERATE TO 
STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AND STABLE AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND 
UPPER LEVELS IS WITHIN 350 NM NW OF THE JET AXIS. A BROAD UPPER 
LEVEL RIDGE E OF THE TROUGH OVER MEXICO.

IN THE DEEP TROPICS AND UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS 
CENTERED NEAR 5N135W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE 
ANTICYCLONE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 
121W-137W.

SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 29N W OF 120W. TRADES IN THE 20-25 KT 
RANGE ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE FROM 9N-20N W OF 
120W. OTHERWISE LARGE NLY SWELL ACROSS THE AREA N OF 5N W OF 
120W.

STRONG PRES GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO WITH GALE FORCE 
WINDS BLOWING THROUGH GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE GALE FORCE 
FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
DGS