000
AXPZ20 KNHC 181515
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN NOV 18 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 7N78W TO 5N95W. ITCZ 5N95W 8N115W TO 6N130W 
TO 7N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 100 NM 
S OF AXIS FROM 130W-134W.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N124W TO 26N130W TO 25N140W. A 
115-120 KT JETSTREAM IS S AND SE OF THE TROUGH FROM 22N140W TO 
22N133W WHERE WINDS DECREASE TO 90-100 KT...THE JET CONTINUES TO 
25N120W ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA. BROKEN/OVERCAST HIGH 
CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 300 NM S OF THE JET AXIS. MODERATE TO STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AND STABLE AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 
LEVELS IS WITHIN 420 NM N OF THE JET AXIS. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL 
RIDGE E OF THE TROUGH OVER MEXICO.

IN THE DEEP TROPICS AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 5N130W TO 
14N111W. A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS SE OF THE RIDGE IS CENTERED 
6N107W.

SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 29N W OF 120W. TRADES IN THE 20-25 KT 
RANGE ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE FROM 12N-20N W 
OF 135W. OTHERWISE LARGE NLY SWELL IS ACROSS THE AREA N OF 9N W 
OF 125W.

STRONG PRES GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO WITH GALE FORCE 
WINDS BLOWING THROUGH GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE GALE FORCE WINDS 
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC OFF AND ON THROUGH 
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
DGS