000
AXPZ20 KNHC 151000
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU NOV 15 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0915 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS FROM 07N78W TO 07N98W THEN ITCZ TO 1011 MB 
LOW PRES AT 09N116W TO 09N125W TO 09N130W TO 10N137W TO BEYOND 
09N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM 
OF AXIS E OF 102W AND W OF 123W.

...DISCUSSION...
DEEP LAYER CYCLONE AT 33N135W SUPPORTS 1004 MB SURFACE LOW PRES 
CENTER AND COLD FRONT FROM 32N133W TO 30N132W TO 22N140W.  
CYCLONE TRACK SHIFTS NE AS BROAD ANTICYCLONE WELL ANCHORED AT 
14N120W BLOCKS FURTHER EASTWARD MOVE.  COLD FRONT WEAKENS AND 
STALLS FROM 127N TO 134W WITH WINDS DIMINISHING ACCORDINGLY.  
JETSTREAM WITH 90 KT CORE ADVECTS LARGE AMOUNT OF TROPICAL 
MOISTURE NE TOWARDS MEXICO BUT LACK ANY UPLIFTING MECHANISM AT 
THIS TIME TO PROMPT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER.  WEAK ILL-DEFINED 
TROUGH SE OF ANTICYCLONE EXTEND FROM GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TO 
00N120W.  TROUGH AXIS BRINGS SUBSIDING AIR MASS S OF 10N FROM 
102W TO 122W AND DRIES OUT ITCZ AXIS.  SW WINDS AHEAD OF TROUGH 
ADVECTS ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM 
MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA.  

...ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...
STUBBORNLY STATIONARY HIGH PRES 1018 MB AT 27N123W EXPECTED TO 
YIELD SOME GROUND TO APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AND ATTENDANT COLD 
FRONT FROM THE W.  FRESH TO STRONG SW BREEZE AHEAD OF FRONT 
TURNS NW W OF 138W AND BRING LARGE LONG PERIOD NW SWELL INTO NW 
CORNER OF BASIN.  PRESENT FRESH NE TRADES W OF 133W ARE EXPECTED 
TO DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT BY FRI AS RIDGE MOVES E. 

GAP WINDS...
NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND WEAKENING GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT STILL 
REACHES GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AT GALE FORCE...BUT EXPECTED TO 
DIMINISH LATER THIS AFTERNOON BELOW GALE FORCE.  STRONG N-NE 
WINDS REMAIN THROUGH END OF FORECAST PERIOD WITH SEAS 9-10 FT. 

STRONG WINDS OVER SW CARIBBEAN FUNNEL THROUGH GAP IN NICARAGUA 
PRODUCING FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OVER GULF OF PAPAGAYO.  WINDS 
PEAK LATE AT NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS AS DOWNSLOPE DRAINAGE 
FLOW ADD TO WIND STRENGTH. 

$$
WALLY BARNES