000
AXPZ20 KNHC 141505
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED NOV 14 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS FROM 06N78W TO 08N85W TO 07N100W THEN ITCZ 
TO 11N116W TO 09N124W TO 10N135W TO BEYOND 09N140W. ISOLATED 
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM N OF AXIS E OF 95W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 75 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 
120W AND 130W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION 
WITHIN 210 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 130W AND 135W.

...DISCUSSION...
LOW PRES 1011 MB IS CENTERED N OF THE AREA NEAR 31N137W WITH A 
WEAK COLD FRONT ENTERING THE AREA NEAR 30N137W AND EXTENDING TO 
BEYOND 27N140W. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE 1019 MB IS CENTERED N OF THE 
AREA NEAR 32N126W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES 
IS PRODUCING FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE FRONT. 
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE NEXT 
COUPLE OF DAYS REACHING FROM 30N128W TO BEYOND 21N138W BY FRI 
MORNING. A SMALL AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWINDS PREVAILS 
FROM 12N TO 18N W OF 130W WITH SEAS TO 11 FT. THESE WINDS WILL 
DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE AND DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS BY FRI 
WITH SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDING THROUGH THAT TIME. 

GAP WINDS...
NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND A STATIONARY FRONT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO 
IS FUNNELING THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS INTO THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC. THIS FLOW IS PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. WINDS WILL VEER OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO 
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS WILL DECREASE THE WINDS FUNNELING 
INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WHICH WILL DIMINISH WINDS BELOW 
GALE FORCE BY THU AFTERNOON. 

FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN ARE FUNNELING 
THROUGH THE GAP IN TOPOGRAPHY OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. THIS IS 
PRODUCING FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OVER THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. THE 
WINDS ARE PEAKING DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS 
WITH THE ADDED COMPONENT OF NOCTURNALLY DRIVEN DRAINAGE FLOW. 

$$
AL