000 AXPZ20 KNHC 140333 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC WED NOV 14 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0300 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 06N77W TO 09N85W TO 07N94W THEN TRANSITIONS TO ITCZ TO 08N110W TO LOW PRES NEAR 10N116N 1009 MB TO LOW PRES NEAR 10N131W 1009 MB TO BEYOND 09N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM N OF MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 90W AND 96W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 06N TO 10N BETWEEN 133W AND 137W. ...DISCUSSION... BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED ON AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE NEAR 16N114W DOMINATES MOST OF BASIN BETWEEN 100W AND 133W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL EQUATORIAL CYCLONE DIRECTLY TO THE S OF ANTICYCLONE IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 02N114W. DEEP LAYERED ELY FLOW IS BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES AND IS HELPING TO ACCELERATE MOTION OF LOW PRES CENTERS EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ. A LONG WAVE TROUGH CROSSES NEAR 30N141W THEN CONTINUES SW TO JUST E OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. STRONG SWLY FLOW OF 70-100 KT IS NOTED AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS AFFECTING THE NW CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA. THESE WINDS ARE TRANSPORTING ABUNDANT MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICS INTO THE WESTERN FORECAST WATERS. A WIDE BAND OF TRANSVERSE HIGH CLOUDS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE STRONG WINDS. THE LONG WAVE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY REACHING 30N140W. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SE INTO NW WATERS TONIGHT AND WED...WITH SWLY WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT DEVELOPING E OF FRONT...AND NW SWELL IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT SPREADING INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH A POSITION FROM 30N134W TO 23N136W WED EVENING AND FROM 30N130W TO 20N132W THU EVENING. ELSEWHERE AT THE LOWER LEVELS...WEAKENING 1020 MB HIGH PRES SITUATED NEAR 32N128W HAS A WEAK RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 21N110W. PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS HIGH AND THE SEMI-PERMANENT TROUGH USUALLY LOCATED ALONG DESERT W COAST OF MEXICO HAS ALSO WEAKENED. AS A RESULT...WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO 20 KT OR LESS ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. GAP WINDS... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO BLOW ACROSS THE CHIVELA PASS INTO GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE 1852 UTC OSCAT PASS AND A PAIR OF SHIPS PROVIDED OBSERVATIONS OF 25-35 KT NLY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA AND DOWNSTREAM TO NEAR 10N. THIS STRONG FLOW IS ALLOWING SEAS TO BUILD TO 15 FT. BASED ON THE GFS GLOBAL MODEL AND THE NAM REGIONAL MODEL...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THU MORNING BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH TO 20-30 KT INTO THE WEEKEND. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH NE GAP WIND FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THIS AREA. THE MOST RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA AND SHIP CALL SIGN DFCX2 CONFIRMED THE PRESENCE OF NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT WITH SEAS TO 10 FT. A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE WESTERN ATLC IS EXPECTED TO FORCE THE ATLC RIDGE FURTHER E EASING THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN PRES GRADIENT WHICH IN TURN DIMINISHES STRONG BREEZE ACROSS NICARAGUA GAPS INTO GULF OF PAPAGAYO. STRONG NE-E BREEZE WILL STILL CONTINUE...BUT FRESH NE GAP WIND FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO PULSE TO NEAR 25 KT ONLY DURING THE NIGHT TIME AND EARLY MORNING HOURS BY WED WHILE SEAS GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO 6-7 FT. $$ GR