000 AXPZ20 KNHC 130334 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC TUE NOV 13 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0330 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS NW FROM THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AT 07N77W ACROSS WESTERN PANAMA TO THE COAST OF COSTA RICA AT 10N85W...THEN TURNS SW ACROSS THE PACIFIC TO 07N97W...THEN TURNS NW INTO A 1009 MB EMBEDDED LOW PRES AT 09N112W...THEN SW TO 07N119W...NW AGAIN TO A SECOND 1009 MB EMBEDDED LOW PRES AT 10N127W. ITCZ FORMS SW OF THE LOW AT 10N127W TO 08N132W...THEN NW TO THE SOUTHERN SEGMENT OF AN EMBEDDED LOW LEVEL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 09N137W TO 16N132W. ISOLATED MODERATE AND STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 04N TO 09N BETWEEN 80W AND 90W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 75 NM OF THE LOW PRESSURE AT 09N111.5W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 30 NM OF 09N116W AND 09N123W...AND WITHIN 120 NM OF 13.5N130W. MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS ARE INDICATED WITHIN 240 NM NW OF THE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ FROM 09N137W TO 16N132W WITH SEAS OF 10 TO 15 FT. EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE TONIGHT. ...DISCUSSION... A SHORTWAVE RIDGE DOMINATES THE UPPER LEVELS ORIGINATING FROM AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE CENTERED AT 15N118W...WITH AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING W TO A CREST AT 14N131W...AND AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING E TO A CREST AT 12N85W. AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED NW OF THE AREA. UPPER DEBRIS MOISTURE...ORIGINATING FROM ITCZ CONVECTION IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC...CONTINUES TO BE ADVECTED E AND NE THROUGH THE UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14N140W TO 22N129W. THIS MOISTURE THEN FANS OUT AS CONTINUES E ACROSS THE UPPER RIDGE BECOMING AN IMPRESSIVE TROPICAL PLUME WITHIN 360 NM EITHER SIDE OF ALINE FROM 22N129W TO OVER THE MEXICAN/TEXAS BORDER AT 28N100W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE S OF THE UPPER RIDGE IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED BETWEEN 109W-126W. LOOKING FURTHER E...AN UPPER TROUGH DISSECTS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM NE-SW TO BASE OVER THE GULF OF PANAMA SETTING UP AN AREA OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE OVER THE EXTREME SE PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...AND ENHANCING THE CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TO THE E OF 86W. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS ALLOWING THE UPPER TROUGH NW OF THE AREA TO MOVE INTO THE FAR NW PORTION WITH A SURFACE FRONT MOVING INTO THE FAR NW WATERS AROUND SUNSET TUE ACCOMPANIED BY 15-20 KT SW-W-NW WIND SHIFT... WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 6-9 FT W OF THE FRONT. AN AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CONUS WILL DIG S ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO A BASE OVER THE PACIFIC NEAR 11N98W LATE TUE. THIS WILL RESULT IN STRONG SW-W-NW UPPER LEVEL WINDS TO PERSIST OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA TO THE N OF 17N. A BROAD INVERTED UPPER TROUGH OVER THE DEEP TROPICS S OF 08N ALONG 107W WILL SHIFT WESTWARD...AND CONTINUE TO SEPARATE THE UPPER FLOW OVER THE AREA S OF 17N THROUGH MID WEEK. GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...NORTHERLY WINDS AT 20-30 KT HAVE BEGUN TO SURGE THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND STILL EXPECT THESE WINDS TO RAPIDLY INCREASE TO A MINIMAL GALE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND FURTHER INCREASE TO TO A MAX OF 40 KT EARLY TUE...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 10-15 FT TUE. THIS TEHUANTEPEC EVENT IS EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH EARLY THU. BAJA CALIFORNIA AREA...SURFACE WINDS HAVE CLOCKED TO NNE ALONG WESTERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED TO 3-4 FT. WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WESTERN BAJA WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH/SUBSIDE THROUGH MID WEEK. NW WINDS AT 20-25 KT ARE CURRENTLY OBSERVED OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA N OF 22N. THESE WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT ON TUE. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE WINDS AT 15-20 KT WINDS...WITH SEAS 4-7 FT...ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SURGE THROUGH A GAP IN THE CORDILLERA INTO AND JUST DOWNSTREAM...TO NEAR 09N92.5W...OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO TONIGHT...THEN INCREASING TO 20-25 KT ON TUE AND CONTINUING TO PULSE THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK. $$ NELSON