000
AXPZ20 KNHC 120956
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON NOV 12 2012 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0915 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS FROM 10N84W TO 1009 MB LOW PRES AT 09N110W 
TO 08N113W THEN ITCZ TO 1009 MB LOW PRES AT 10N122W TO 07N124W 
TO BEYOND 08N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM W QUADRANT OF LOW PRES AT 09N110W AND 
WITHIN 90 NM SE SEMICIRCLE OF LOW PRES AT 10N122W.  SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 30 NM OF AXIS FROM 130W TO 132W. 

...DISCUSSION...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED BY ANTICYCLONE AT 14N108W  
COVER A LARGE PORTION OF BASIN AND BLOCKS ANY FURTHER SOUTHERN 
INTRUSION OF WEAK TROUGH RUNNING FROM 32N125W TO 24N140W.  
ABUNDANT MOISTURE RIDING ON 90 KT JET CORE JUST SE OF TROUGH 
AXIS...WHILE VERY DRY AIR MASS IS NOTED NW OF TROUGH AXIS.  
RIDGE MAINTAINS DRY STABLE AIR MASS S OF 20N E OF 120W AND S OF 
08N W OF 120W.  SECOND ANTICYCLONE HELPS EXTEND DRY RIDGE 
EASTWARD TO SOUTH AMERICA.  RIDGE CREATES SMALL AREA OF UPPER 
LEVEL DIVERGENT FLOW WHICH ENHANCES CONVECTION DEVELOPING W OF 
SURFACE 1009 MB LOW PRES.  WHILE SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED 
CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM OF LOW PRES CENTER...NO 
TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED FROM THIS FEATURE. 

...ELSEWHERE AT THE LOWER LEVELS...
WELL SUPPORTED SURFACE HIGH PRES 1028 MB AT 35N135W MAINTAINS 
STRONG TRADE WINDS AND SEAS BUILDING TO 16 FT ACROSS MIDDLE OF 
BASIN FROM 10N TO 22N W OF 115W.  RIDGE HOLD IN POSITION 
BRINGING STRONG TO NEAR GALE NW WINDS ALONG GULF OF CALIFORNIA 
AXIS BUILDING TRAPPED SEAS TO 8 FT.  BY LATE TUE RIDGE MOVES E 
EFFECTIVELY DIMINISHING GULF OF CALIFORNIA WINDS BELOW 20 KT. 

...GAP WINDS...
GULF OF PAPAGAYO FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS WITH SEAS 6-8 FT 
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SURGING THROUGH AT EARLY WED.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED DEVELOP IN 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TODAY INCREASING TO GALE FORCE TONIGHT WITH 
SEAS BUILDING TO 10-15 FT EARLY TUE. 
 
$$
WALLY BARNES