000 AXPZ20 KNHC 102202 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC SAT NOV 10 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2145 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS W FROM THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AT 06N78W TO 06N90W...THEN TURNS NW TO 09N100W...THEN DIPS SW TO 07N106W...THEN WIGGLES NORTHWESTERLY TO AN 1012 MB EMBEDDED LOW PRESSURE AT 12N122W WITH EVIDENCE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH CONTINUING SW TO 10N130W WHERE LOW LEVEL WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION TO AN ITCZ. THE ITCZ WIGGLES W FROM 10N130W TO BEYOND 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 04N78W TO 05N86W...A LINE FROM 09N99W TO 09N106W...A LINE FROM 09N112W TO 09N116W...WITHIN 90 NM OF 12.5N114W...AND ALSO WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13N123W 12N132W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 06N TO 10N BETWEEN 120W AND 127W. ...DISCUSSION... A LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH HAS MOVED E TO OVER WESTERN N AMERICA WITH ITS MEAN AXIS CONTINUING S INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 32N114W TO A BASE AT 26N114W. A REINFORCING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS ROTATING THROUGH THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WITH ITS AXIS FROM 32N116W TO 26N125W. AN UPPER CYCLONE HAS NEARLY CUT OFF 23N140W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OBSERVED OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA WITHIN 300 NM E OF THE CYCLONE CENTER. THE DEBRIS MOISTURE IS SPREADING WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE 26N140W TO 25N130W. THIS PATTERN IS PRODUCING A SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER JET ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA WITHIN ABOUT 270 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15N140W TO 21N120W TO BEYOND 30N100W WHICH IS ADVECTING UPPER DEBRIS MOISTURE...MOSTLY ORIGINATING FROM ITCZ CONVECTION BETWEEN 145W-160W...NE ACROSS NORTHERN OLD MEXICO AND EVENTUALLY FANNING OUT OVER THE S-CENTRAL CONUS. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS E ACROSS THE DEEP TROPICS FROM ABOUT 05N140W TO 10N120W AND PROVIDES UPPER DIFFLUENCE WHICH IS SUPPORTING THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED TO THE W OF 120W. SOME OF THE DEBRIS MOISTURE MERGES WITH THE SOUTHWESTERLY PLUME ALREADY DESCRIBED WHILE SOME OF THE DEBRIS MOISTURE IS ALSO ADVECTED S ACROSS THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 120W-135W. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED AT 07N90W WITH AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING NE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE LONGWAVE RIDGE SHIFTING E ACROSS EASTERN N AMERICA. AN UPPER RIDGE ALSO EXTENDS W FROM THE ANTICYCLONE TO A CREST OVER THE DEEP TROPICS AT 12N116W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE ALONG THIS TROPICAL RIDGE IS ENHANCING THE MONSOON TROUGH CONVECTION DESCRIBED BETWEEN 99W-106W...WITH THE DEBRIS MOISTURE ORGANIZING INTO A DENSE TROPICAL PLUME NOTED WITHIN 180 NM OF LINE FROM 12N114W TO 23N103W WHERE IT MERGES WITH ANOTHER TROPICAL PLUME PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED. UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS ALSO ENHANCING MONSOON TROUGH CONVECTION ALONG 04N-05N BETWEEN 78W-86W...WITH THE DEBRIS MOISTURE ADVECTED S ACROSS THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 78W-87W. OTHERWISE DRY UPPER AIR IS NOTED OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA E OF 100W...AND S OF 07N BETWEEN 100W-114W...WITH AN INVERTED UPPER TROUGH OBSERVED TO THE S OF 08N ALONG 112W. THE LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH WILL PROGRESS E ACROSS CENTRAL N AMERICA TONIGHT AND SUN. THE UPPER CYCLONE AT 23N140W WILL MOVE NE ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA AND FILL NEAR 31N128W ON SUN NIGHT LEAVING STRONG WESTERLY UPPER FLOW...50-110 KT... ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA N OF 15N WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DRAG A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA TONIGHT INTO SUN ACCOMPANIED BY SW-W-NW 10-15 KT WIND SHIFT. STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING S ACROSS THE N-CENTRAL WATERS ACCOMPANIED BY 15-20 KT...BUT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20-25 KT IN THE AREA FROM 10-23N BETWEEN 118W-140W ON MON. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 15-20 KT...SEAS 6-8 FT...ARE OBSERVED ALONG WESTERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TO THE N OF 29N...WITH THESE CONDITION EXPECTED TO QUICKLY SPREAD S ALONG THE ENTIRE W COAST OF BAJA TONIGHT. EXPECT NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT TO INCREASE TO 20-25 KT ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF OF CALIFORNIA FROM SUN EVENING THROUGH MON NIGHT...THEN BEGIN TO DIMINISH. THE INVERTED UPPER TROUGH OVER THE DEEP TROPICS WILL CONTINUE WITH AN UPPER CYCLONE DEVELOPING ALONG THE TROUGH AT 02N. THIS UPPER TROUGH/CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO SEPARATE THE UPPER FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOUTHERLY CROSS EQUATORIAL FLOW WILL RESULT IN COMBINED SEAS OF 4-7 FT ACROSS THE TROPICS S OF 10N THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK. NORTHERLY WINDS AT 20-25 KT...SEAS 7-10 FT...IN AND JUST DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH/SUBSIDE TONIGHT AND SUN. THE NORTHERLY SWELLS PRODUCED FROM THE RECENT TEHUANTEPEC EVENT ARE MIXING WITH CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELL ACROSS THE TROPICS FROM ABOUT 05N-11N BETWEEN 97W-107W. EXPECTING AN INVERTED LOW LEVEL TROUGH... POSSIBLY A WEAK SURFACE LOW..TO DEVELOP FROM 06N-10N BETWEEN 105W-108W ON SUN...AND MOVE W THROUGH MON....ACCOMPANIED BY A NE-E-SE WIND AT 15-20 KT...SEAS TO 8 FT. NLY WINDS WILL AGAIN SURGE AT 15-20 KT INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC LATE MON...AND RAPIDLY INCREASE TO GALE FORCE MON EVENING. THIS NEXT TEHUANTEPEC EVENT IS EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH THU MORNING. IN THE MEANTIME EXPECT THE NE 20-25 KT WINDS TO CONTINUE TO SURGE THROUGH A GAP IN THE CORDILLERA INTO AND JUST DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON THEN DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT MON NIGHT AND MON...THEN INCREASE AGAIN LATE MON NIGHT. $$ NELSON