000 AXPZ20 KNHC 100953 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC SAT NOV 10 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0915 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH 09N84W TO 07N89W TO 10N96W TO 08N106W TO 10N115W THEN ITCZ TO 12N118W TO 09N130W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM N OF AXIS FROM 98W TO 110W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM S OF AXIS FROM 124W TO 136W. ...DISCUSSION... HEALTHY SHORT WAVE SLIDES ON WESTERN SIDE OF LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM 32N118W TO VERY WELL DEFINED CYCLONE AT 24N142W. VERY DRY AIR MASS N OF LONGWAVE TROUGH...BUT ABUNDANT MOISTURE RIDES 75 KT BROAD SW-NE JET CORE JUST DOWNSTREAM OF AXIS. TROUGH SUPPORTS DISSIPATING COLD FRONT FROM 32N112W TO 24N123W. ANTICYCLONE OVER GALAPAGOS ISLANDS HAS CREST RUN N TO GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND DRIES REGION S OF MONSOON TROUGH E OF 114W. ...ELSEWHERE AT THE LOWER LEVELS... STRONG HIGH PRES CENTER 1029 MB JUST NW OF BASIN DRIFTS E BEHIND COLD FRONT AND BRINGS FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS AND SEAS BUILDING 12-13 IN N TO NW SWELLS INTO BASIN N OF 18N W OF 113W THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD. STRENGTH OF HIGH PRES FORCES FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS INTO GULF OF CALIFORNIA WITH 6-7 FT SEAS LATE IN PERIOD AND BEYOND. GAP WINDS...STRONG TO NEAR GALE NORTHERLY WINDS DIMINISHING OVER GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TODAY AND TONIGHT ONLY TO RETURN WITH A VENGEANCE LATE MON. N WINDS EXPECTED TO REACH GALE FORCE WINDS WITH SEAS UP TO 13 FT BY THEN. SURGE IN GULF OF PAPAGAYO FRESH E BREEZE EXPECTED TO NEAR GALE FORCE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT THEN DIMINISH BY LATE SUN AND MON. DOWNSTREAM SWELL EVENTUALLY MERGES WITH THAT FORMED BY GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC CREATING LARGE AREA OF 8-9 FT SWELL FROM 103W TO 108W. $$ WALLY BARNES