000
AXPZ20 KNHC 091609
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI NOV 09 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA NEAR FROM 08N74.5W TO 
10N80W TO 09N87W TO 07N103.5W TO 10N115W TO 08.5N125W...WHERE IT 
TRANSITIONS TO ITCZ...CONTINUING ON TO 08.5N136W TO BEYOND 
07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED FROM 03N 
TO 06N E OF 80.5W.  SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS FROM 89W TO 104W. NUMEROUS 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 120 NM N AND 180 NM S 
OF AXIS FROM 110W TO 121W...AND FROM 12N TO 16N BETWEEN 110W AND 
114W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 
180 NM S OF AXIS W OF 127W.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG W COAST OF N AMERICA EXTENDS TROUGH SW 
THROUGH 30N126W TO UPPER CYCLONE AT 24N141W...AND IS HELPING TO 
MAINTAIN STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT OVER BASIN N OF 22N. A LARGE 
BROAD RIDGE PREVAILS E OF 114W...WITH AXIS N OF 20N ALONG ABOUT 
100W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS JUST W OF RIDGE...FROM 
24N121W TO WEAK MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONE AT 10N118W...WITH TROUGH 
EXTENDING SSE TO AN ANCHORING EQUATORIAL CYCLONE NEAR 00N110W. 
DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH AN EASTERLY WAVE ALONG THE 
MONSOON TROUGH AT 115W PERSISTS ALONG AND TO THE E OF THE WAVE 
AXIS...UNDER DIFFLUENT ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...WITH CONVECTION 
AIDING IN MODEST WWD EXPANSION OF RIDGE. A LARGE POOL OF 
TROPICAL MOISTURE IS EVIDENT IN MICROWAVE IMAGERY FROM 05.5N TO 
12N BETWEEN 111W AND 126W...AND WILL PROVIDE INSTABILITY FOR 
ACTIVE CONVECTION E OF THIS UPPER THROUGH NEXT 24 HOURS. 
CONVECTION E OF THIS TROUGH CURRENTLY EXTENDS WILL AWAY FROM 
MONSOON TROUGH...TO 16N111W. UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES AND A 
TROPICAL UPPER JET PREVAIL ELSEWHERE TO THE W OF THIS 
TROUGH...WITH CORE WIND SPEEDS TO NEAR 100 KT ALONG 19N150W PER 
RECENT CIMSS ANALYSIS. 

...ELSEWHERE AT THE LOWER LEVELS...
TAIL OF WEAK COLD FRONT SWEEPING SE INTO N PORTIONS FROM 30N119W 
TO 24N130W TO 25N140W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS 
EXTEND N AND NW OF FRONT TO 140W. 1032 MB HIGH PRES CENTER MB NW 
OF BASIN IS FORCING FRESH N TO NE TRADES INTO NW CORNER OF E PAC 
WITH N TO NW SWELL SPREADING S REACHING 10-12 FT SAT THEN 
SUBSIDING SUN. 

GAP WINDS...GALE FORCE WINDS TO 40 KT CONTINUED THROUGH THE GULF 
OF TEHUANTEPEC THIS MORNING...AS DEPICTED BY OVERNIGHT 
SCATTEROMETER PASSES. CRUISE SHIP "PINX" PASSED THROUGH THE 
STRONGEST REGION OF WINDS MEASURED BY SCATTEROMETERS...AT 0300 
UTC...AND REPORTED 50 KT...BUT WAS MEASURED AT 108 FT ABOVE 
WATER LEVEL AND THUS LIKELY 8-10 KT HIGH. WINDS ACROSS THE 
SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO HAVE BEGUN TO SHIFT ELY THIS MORNING AND 
WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW 
GALE FORCE BY LATE AFTERNOON. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS 20-30 KT 
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SAT AND THEN DIMINISH TO AROUND 20 KT LATE 
SUN. A NEW COLD FRONT WILL ENTER GULF OF MEXICO AND PROMPT 
ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR ACROSS CHIVELAS PASS INTO GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC LATE MON..WITH WINDS REACHING GALE FORCE AGAIN LATE 
MON.  

STRONG TRADES ACROSS WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEEP THROUGH GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO WITH PULSATING STRONG E WINDS WHEN ENHANCED BY COLD 
NIGHTTIME DOWNSLOPING WINDS THEN FRESH BREEZE WHEN DAYTIME 
SEABREEZE COUNTERS EASTERLIES.  PRODUCED E SWELLS MERGE WITH 
THOSE ORIGINATING BY GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC INTO REGION OF 9-10 FT. 

CROSS EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELL...RESULTING IN SEAS TO 8 FT... 
S OF 03N FROM 100W TO 120W...EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT LATE 
SAT.

$$
STRIPLING