000 AXPZ20 KNHC 081901 AAA TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...UPDATED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1900 UTC THU NOV 08 2012 UPDATED CONVECTION UNDER ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...AND INCLUDED MENTION OF A SURFACE TROUGH AND ASCAT DATA IN FIRST PARAGRAPH TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1830 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N79W TO 08N90W TO 07N100W WHERE LOW LEVEL SUGGEST THAT IT TRANSITIONS TO THE ITCZ TO 09N112W TO 06N130W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION EXISTS FROM 08N-16N BETWEEN 104W-114W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 84W-93W. ...DISCUSSION... A LONGWAVE TROUGH STRETCHES FROM JUST OFFSHORE THE PACIFIC NW SSW TO 32N129W AND SW TO 28N138W AND CONTINUES SW TO A AN UPPER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION DROPPING SWD TO THE W OF THE DISCUSSION AREA AT 25N145W. THE TROUGH PORTION E OF 131W IS QUICKLY MOVING E APPROACHING THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES...WHILE THE PORTIONS W OF 131W IS MOVING SSW. A WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH IS MOVING E OVER SRN CALIFORNIA...WHILE A BROKEN SEGMENT OF THIS FRONT NOW LAGS BEHIND AS A DISSIPATING TROUGH FROM 32N124W TO 25N130W AS SEEN ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY ...AND AS WAS LIGHTLY CAPTURED IN THE DISPLAYED WINDS REVEALED BY 1510 UTC HIGH RESOLUTION ASCAT PASS FROM THIS MORNING. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH. A SECOND NLY SURGE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL PUSH SE TO NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH 48 HOURS AS THE SUPPORTING UPPER TROUGH DIGS FARTHER INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. PORTIONS OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA N OF 30N MAY EXPERIENCE SW-W 20 KT WINDS BY FRI WITH THE POST-FRONTAL SURGE. A SHARP MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH THROUGH 24 HOURS...WITH AN ASSOCIATED 1028 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES AREA SETTLING NEAR 36N140W THROUGH 48 HOURS. THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL ALLOW A BROAD SWATH OF MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES TO DEVELOP MAINLY N OF 10N W OF 125W THROUGH LATE FRI. LONG PERIOD NORTHERLY SWELL WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH FRI...WITH SEAS 8 TO 11 FT REACHING AS FAR S AS 26N BETWEEN 118W AND 135W BY LATE FRI...AND HIGHER SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 9-13 FT N OF 27N BETWEEN 120W-130W. TO THE S AND SW OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH...A MID/UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 19N124W SE TO 15N120W TO 10N116W TO NEAR 04N109W. THIS FEATURE SUPPORTS A WEAK SURFACE TO LOW LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS ANALYZED FROM NEAR 20N117W TO 14N120W. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE WITHIN 30-60 NM OF THE TROUGH. THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY W DURING THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HRS...BUT REMAIN RATHER WEAK. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE TO THE SW OF THE MID/UPPER TROUGH IN COMBINATION WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS SUPPORTING WEAK SCATTERED TSTM ACTIVITY WITHIN 30 NM OF LINE FROM 08N122W TO 06N118W. TO THE E OF THE TROUGH SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION...IN TERMS OF AREAL COVERAGE...IS IDENTIFIED AS OF THE SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG TYPE INTENSITY FROM 08N-15N BETWEEN 104W-112W MOSTLY ATTRIBUTED TO DIFFLUENCE ALOFT E OF THE SAME TROUGH ALONG WITH STRONGER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OF SLY WINDS S OF THE ITCZ AXIS OVER THAT PORTION OF THE AREA. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION IS ALSO FOUND UNDER A BROAD AND PERSISTENT AREA OF MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING THAT COVERS THE ENTIRE SE PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH A MEAN RIDGE AXIS THAT EXTENDS FROM NRN COSTA RICA WNW TO 13N96W TO 16N111W. UPPER DEBRIS MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS FROM THIS CONVECTIVE IS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TO BE STREAMING NNE TOWARDS THE W CENTRAL MEXICAN COAST. OVER THE SW PORTION OF THE AREA MOSTLY BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE INTRUDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE DUE TO A STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM BRANCH THAT PASSES TO THE S OF THE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AT 24N145W. THIS JET CONTINUES TO WELL INTO THE AREA THROUGH 17N140W AND SE TO NEAR 12N128W TO JUST SW OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 19N124W 15N120W 10N116W. BOTH SATELLITE DEDUCED WIND DATA AND MODEL UPPER LEVEL WINDS INDICATE SPEEDS OF 60-90 KT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS JET. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND WEAK ISOLATED TSTMS ARE NOTED S OF 19N W OF 114W. GAP WINDS...THE OSCAT PASS FROM NEAR 0600 UTC OVERNIGHT LAST NIGHT SHOWED GALE FORCE N TO NE WINDS WITHIN 150 NM OF THE COAST OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE COLD DENSER AIR FILTERING THROUGH THE GULF WILL THIN THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HRS ALLOWING FOR THE GALE FORCE WINDS TO SUBSIDE. THE ONGOING GALE EVENT HAS PRODUCED A LONG AREA OF SEAS OF UP TO 8 FT IN MIXED NE AND SW SWELL AS FAR W AS 105W...WITH SEAS OF 8-10 FT ELSEWHERE WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 16N95W TO 14N96W TO 11N105W. NE-E WIND PULSES THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO ARE IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE...AS NOTED IN AN ASCAT PASS FROM NEAR 12 UTC THIS MORNING AS WELL AS IN THE 0600 UTC OSCAT PASS FROM LAST NIGHT. SEAS THERE ARE UP TO 9 FT. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HRS... BUT PRIMARILY DURING THE EARLY MORNING TIME OF DAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN SEAS. $$ AGUIRRE