000 AXPZ20 KNHC 081605 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC THU NOV 08 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1545 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N79W TO 08N90W TO 07N100W WHERE LOW LEVEL SUGGEST THAT IT TRANSITIONS TO THE ITCZ TO 09N112W TO 06N130W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION EXISTS FROM 08N-15N BETWEEN 104W-112W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 84W-89W. ...DISCUSSION... A LONG WAVE TROUGH STRETCHES FROM JUST OFFSHORE THE PACIFIC NW SSW TO 32N129W AND SW TO 28N138W AND CONTINUES SW TO A AN UPPER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION DROPPING S TO THE W OF THE DISCUSSION AREA AT 25N145W. THE TROUGH PORTION E OF 131W IS QUICKLY MOVING E APPROACHING THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES...WHILE THE PORTIONS W OF 131W IS MOVING SSW. A WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH IS MOVING E OVER SRN CALIFORNIA. A SECOND SURGE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL PUSH SE TO NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH 48 HOURS AS THE SUPPORTING UPPER TROUGH DIGS FARTHER INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. PORTIONS OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA N OF 30N MAY EXPERIENCE SW-W 20 KT WINDS BY FRI WITH THE POST-FRONTAL SURGE. A SHARP MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH THROUGH 24 HOURS...WITH AN ASSOCIATED 1028 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES AREA SETTLING NEAR 36N140W THROUGH 48 HOURS. THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL ALLOW A BROAD SWATH OF MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES TO DEVELOP MAINLY N OF 10N W OF 125W THROUGH LATE FRI. LONG PERIOD NORTHERLY SWELL WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH FRI...WITH SEAS 8 TO 11 FT REACHING AS FAR S AS 26N BETWEEN 118W AND 135W BY LATE FRI...AND HIGHER SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 9 TO 13 FT N OF 27N BETWEEN 120W-130W. TO THE S AND SW OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH...A MID/UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 19N124W SE TO 15N120W TO 10N116W TO NEAR 04N109W. THIS FEATURE SUPPORTS A WEAK SURFACE TO LOW LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS ANALYZED FROM NEAR 20N117W TO 14N120W. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE WITHIN 30-60 NM OF THE TROUGH. THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY W DURING THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HRS...BUT REMAIN RATHER WEAK. ONGOING DIVERGENCE ALOFT TO THE SW OF THE TROUGH ALONG WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 270 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS. GAP WINDS...THE OSCAT PASS FROM NEAR 0600 UTC OVERNIGHT LAST NIGHT SHOWED GALE FORCE N TO NE WINDS WITHIN 150 NM OF THE COAST OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE COLD DENSER AIR FILTERING THROUGH THE GULF WILL THIN THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HRS ALLOWING FOR THE GALE FORCE WINDS TO SUBSIDE. THE ONGOING GALE EVENT HAS PRODUCED A LONG AREA OF SEAS OF 8 TO 14 FT AS FAR W AS 100W...MIXING WITH DECAYING REMNANTS OF CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL. MEANWHILE WIND PULSES THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO ARE REACHING 25 KT...AS NOTED IN AN ASCAT PASS FROM NEAR 12 UTC THIS MORNING. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS...PRIMARILY IN THE EARLY MORNINGS. $$ AGUIRRE