000
AXPZ20 KNHC 070950
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED NOV 07 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0845 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH FROM 08N83W TO 08N112W. ITCZ FROM 08N112W TO 
05N123W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 97W AND 102W.
  
...DISCUSSION...

N OF 20N...AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN CONTINUES N OF 20N WITH AN UPPER 
CYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 28N125W. AN ASSOCIATED 1015 MB SURFACE LOW 
PRES IS NEAR 30N126W...SPLITTING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE THE 
UPPER CYCLONE IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR 26N125W. 
THE UPPER CYCLONE WILL OPEN UP AND LIFT NE TODAY AHEAD OF A LONG 
WAVE TROUGH IS PUSHING E OF 135W N OF 30N...ALLOWING THE SURFACE 
LOW TO DISSIPATE AS WELL. ANOTHER UPPER CYCLONE IS CUTTING OFF 
NEAR 29N148W AS THE LONG WAVE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST. FURTHER 
SOUTH...A PERSISTENT SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 20N112W TO 
11N112W DRIFTING W. DESPITE STRONG SW SHEAR AND DECREASING DEEP 
LAYER MOISTURE...A FEW REMNANT SHOWERS ARE ACTIVE NEAR 19N113W. 

LOOKING AHEAD TO LATE IN THE WEEK...DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE 
MODELS SHOW THE DEEP RIDGE BUILDING N OF THE CUTOFF LOW NEAR 
25N145W...ALLOWING THE LONG WAVE TROUGH TO AMPLIFY SIGNIFICANTLY 
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS OVER THE U.S. WEST COAST. AN 
ASSOCIATED 1034 MB SURFACE HIGH BUILDS NEAR 42N142W BY LATE 
THU/EARLY FRI...ALLOWING A BROAD SWATH FRESH TO ISOLATED STRONG 
TRADE WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA N OF 25N W OF 130W BY LATE 
THU...SPREADING SE THROUGH FRI.

AN ALTIMETER PASS FROM AROUND 05 UTC SHOWED SEAS TO 8 FT AS FAR 
N AS 02N NEAR 110W...LIKELY IN CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELL. GLOBAL 
WAVE MODELS SHOW THIS SWELL MIXING WITH FRESH NE SWELL GENERATED 
FROM THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AREA TONIGHT THROUGH THU. SE SWELL 
WITH SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS TO 8 FT ARE ALSO COVERING PORTIONS 
OF THE DISCUSSION AREA S OF 06N W OF 130W. NW SWELL WILL 
PENETRATE INTO THE NW DISCUSSION AREA BY LATE THU. 

GAP WINDS...DENSE AIR PUSHING SOUTH BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING 
THROUGH THE SW GULF OF MEXICO IS SURGING THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF 
TEHUANTEPEC THIS MORNING REACHING GALE FORCE. EXPECT THE LOW 
LEVEL FLOW TO INCREASE TO A MAX OF 40 KT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 
14 FT ON WED. GALE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH 
SUNRISE FRI MORNING...THEN DIMINISH. EXPECT NE WINDS TO INCREASE 
TO 15 TO 20 KT TONIGHT IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND FURTHER 
INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT ON WED AFTERNOON. THE RESULTANT NE SWELL 
WILL PROPAGATE W TO ALONG 94W...MERGING WITH THE SWELL 
ORIGINATING FROM THE NORTHERLY WINDS SURGING THROUGH THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC. 

$$
CHRISTENSEN