000
AXPZ20 KNHC 060942
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE NOV 06 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 08N110W...RESUMES FROM LOW 
PRES NEAR 12N132W 1008 MB TO 09N125W. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 09N125W 
TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS 
BETWEEN 90W AND 98W.

...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 25N125W IS SUPPORTING AN ASSOCIATED 
SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TO 26N125W. 
A 1014 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR 26N118W WILL DISSIPATE 
TODAY AS THE SURFACE TROUGH DRIFTS SLOWLY SE TOWARD NORTHERN 
BAJA. GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS A WEAK SURFACE LOW FORMING 
ALONG THE TROUGH BRIEFLY LATE TODAY. FURTHER WEST...ANOTHER 
MID/UPPER TROUGH IS DRIFTING E THROUGH 150W. DETERMINISTIC AND 
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE INDICATE THIS TROUGH WILL BECOME CUT OFF BY 
12Z ON WED...AS JET ENERGY OVER THE NE PACIFIC DIGS INTO THE 
MAIN TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST...ALLOWING THE UPPER LOW NEAR 
25N125W TO OPEN UP AND LIFT NE. THE DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE 
WEST COAST WILL PROMPT A COLD FRONT TO PUSH S OF 32N BY LATE WED.

FARTHER SOUTH...A PAIR 1008 MB LOW PRES SYSTEMS PERSIST...ONE 
NEAR 16N109W AND THE OTHER NEAR 14N123W...THE REMNANT OF ROSA. 
BOTH OF THESE WILL OPEN INTO TROUGHS TODAY THEN DISSIPATE 
THROUGH WED. 

MEANWHILE...FRESH TO STRONG GAP WIND FLOW CONTINUES TO PULSE 
THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. A HIGH RESOLUTION ASCAT PASS 
FROM 04 UTC INDICATING 20 TO 30 KT WINDS THROUGH THE GAP. A COLD 
FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE SW GULF OF MEXICO BY TODAY. THE 
NORTHERLY FLOW ALONG WITH DENSER AIR AND HIGHER PRES BEHIND THE 
FRONT WILL ALLOW WINDS TO INCREASE TO GALE FORCE THROUGH 
TEHUANTEPEC BY THIS EVENING. THE EVENT WILL PERSIST AT LEAST 
THROUGH 48 HOURS...ALLOWING SEAS TO BUILD TO 14 FT IN THE GULF 
OF TEHUANTEPEC WITH A PLUME OF SEAS 8 TO 10 FT UP TO 500 NM 
DOWNSTREAM. 

FURTHER SOUTH...GULF OF PAPAGAYO GAP WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE 
TO 20-25 KT WED AND CONTINUE THROUGH THU NIGHT...WITH PEAK WINDS 
MAINLY IN EARLY MORNING HOURS. 

RESIDUAL NW SWELL OVER MUCH OF THE AREA N OF 15N W OF 120W WILL 
DECAY BELOW 8 FT THROUGH TODAY. ENSEMBLE WAVE GUIDANCE INDICATES 
THAT SW SWELL TO 8 FT WILL PUSH N OF THE EQUATOR TO AS FAR N AS 
05N BETWEEN 95W AND 105W BY LATE WED. LOOKING AHEAD TO 
THU...THIS SW SWELL WILL MIX WITH SHORTER PERIOD NE SWELL 
EMERGING OUT OF THE TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND EVENT TO PRESENT A 
LARGE AREA OF CONFUSED SEAS FROM 08N TO 14N BETWEEN 95W AND 
115W.  

$$
CHRISTENSEN