000
AXPZ20 KNHC 060319
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE NOV 6 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 09N86W TO 08N92W TO 11N107W
RESUMES FROM 12N123W TO 10N126W...THEN ITCZ TO 08N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 88W AND 
101W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM 
OF 16.5N105W.

...DISCUSSION...
BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRES ACROSS NORTHERN PART OF DISCUSSION AREA 
N OF 20N W OF 114W. WEAK SURFACE LOWS ARE EVIDENT NEAR 16N109W 
AND 11N122W. PERSISTENT STRONG SW UPPER LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE 
REGION WILL CAUSE THESE LOWS TO WEAKEN FURTHER OVER THE NEXT 
24-36 HOURS. ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASSES BETWEEN 1520 UTC AND 
1850 UTC OVER THE EAST PACIFIC SHOW LIGHT-MODERATE WINDS ACROSS 
THE ENTIRE BASIN...EXCEPT FOR 15-20 KT S WINDS FROM THE EQUATOR 
TO 07N BETWEEN 92W AND 98W...15-20 KT ESE WINDS FROM 07S TO 02N 
BETWEEN 121W AND 135W...AND SMALL AREA OF 20 KT TRADE WINDS FROM 
09N TO 14N W OF 137W.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH S OF 30N INTO BAJA CALIFORNIA THU
NIGHT WITH STRONG HIGH PRES N OF THE FRONT ALLOWING SEAS TO BUILD
TO 11-12 FT N OF 28N E OF 130W BY SAT.

GAP WINDS...BROAD HIGH PRES OVER GULF OF MEXICO WILL ALLOW GAP 
WIND PULSES INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TO REACH 25 KT AT TIMES 
THROUGH TUE EVENING. HIGH PRES BUILDING BEHIND A COLD FRONT IN 
THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO TUE WILL CAUSE A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT 
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC BY TUE NIGHT... AND 
ALLOW N-NE WINDS TO INCREASE TO 30-35 KT AND PERSIST THROUGH THU.

FURTHER SOUTH...GULF OF PAPAGAYO GAP WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE 
TO 20-25 KT WED AND CONTINUE THROUGH THU NIGHT...WITH PEAK WINDS 
MAINLY IN EARLY MORNING HOURS.  

$$
MUNDELL