000
AXPZ20 KNHC 052135
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON NOV 5 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N78W TO 08N84W 07N98W TO LOW PRES 
1009 MB NEAR 10N104W...THEN RESUMES SW OF REMNANT LOW ROSA 1009 
MB NEAR 11N122W TO 09N130W...THEN ITCZ TO 07N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM S OF AXIS E OF 107W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM NE OF LOW NEAR 
11N122W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM S OF AXIS W 
OF 133W.

...DISCUSSION...
BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRES PREVAILS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTION OF 
DISCUSSION AREA...N OF 20N W OF 114W. THREE WEAK LOWS ARE EVIDENT
FROM ANIMATED SAT IMAGERY...ALL WITH ESTIMATED SLP 1009 MB...NEAR
10N104W...16N109W AND 11N122W. PERSISTENT STRONG SW UPPER LEVEL 
WINDS ACROSS THE REGION WILL CAUSE THESE LOWS TO WEAKEN FURTHER 
OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASSES BETWEEN 
1520 UTC AND 1850 UTC OVER THE EAST PACIFIC SHOW LIGHT-MODERATE 
WINDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN...EXCEPT FOR 15-20 KT S WINDS FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 07N BETWEEN 92W AND 98W...15-20 KT ESE WINDS FROM 
07S TO 02N BETWEEN 121W AND 135W...AND SMALL AREA OF 20 KT TRADE 
WINDS FROM 09N TO 14N W OF 137W.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH S OF 30N INTO BAJA CALIFORNIA THU
NIGHT WITH STRONG HIGH PRES N OF THE FRONT ALLOWING SEAS TO BUILD
TO 11-12 FT N OF 28N E OF 130W BY SAT.

GAP WINDS...SURFACE HIGH PRES OVER GULF OF MEXICO WILL ALLOW GAP 
WIND PULSES INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TO REACH 25 KT AT TIMES 
THROUGH TUE EVENING. A SHIP REPORT NEAR 15.5N95W AT 1800 UTC 
SHOWED 25 KT WINDS AND 8 FT SEAS. HIGH PRES BUILDING BEHIND A 
COLD FRONT IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO TUE WILL CAUSE A TIGHT 
PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC BY TUE NIGHT... 
AND ALLOW N-NE WINDS TO INCREASE TO 30-35 KT THROUGH THURSDAY.

FURTHER SOUTH...GULF OF PAPAGAYO GAP WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE 
TO 20-25 KT WED AND CONTINUE THROUGH THU NIGHT...WITH PEAK WINDS 
MAINLY IN EARLY MORNING HOURS.  

$$
MUNDELL