000
AXPZ20 KNHC 051551
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON NOV 05 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS FROM 06N77W TO 08N89W 07N100W TO LOW PRES 
1009 MB AT 10N104W.  MONSOON TROUGH RESUMES SW OF REMNANT LOW 
PRES 1009 MB OF ROSA AT 11N122W TO 09N110W THEN ITCZ TO 08N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 270 NM S OF AXIS E OF 98W.  
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM S OF AXIS W OF 122W.

...DISCUSSION...
WELL DEFINED UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE AT 24N124W HAS TROUGH 
EXTEND NE TO 32N103W AND TO 10N140W TO THE SW.  TROUGH BRINGS IN 
VERY DRY AIR MASS W OF ITS AXIS.  ADDITIONALLY...STRONG UPPER 
LEVEL SHEARING WINDS CONTRIBUTED IN NO SMALL ACCOUNT TO THE 
DEMISE OF ROSA AND CURTAILED THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANY TROPICAL 
ORGANIZATION IN THE SURFACE LOW PRES AT 16N109W.  NE-SW SLANTED 
MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CREST EXTENDS DRY STABLE AIR MASS 
UPSTREAM WELL BEYOND TROUGH AXIS N OF 10N.  

...ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...
REMNANT LOW PRES OF ROSA 1009 MB HOLD ON TO LIFE NEAR 13N122W 
AMIDST FAIRLY ADVERSE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS ALL LEVELS WITH A BURST 
OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 240 NM IN NE 
QUADRANT.  MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZE REMAINING WITHIN 90 NM N OF  
ROSA EXPECTED TO DIMINISH LATER TODAY.  

SECOND LOW PRES CENTER STATIONARY AT 15N109W HAS FRESH BREEZE 
WITHIN 240 NM NE SEMICIRCLE.  IT IS UNDER THE SAME ADVERSE SW 
SHEARING UPPER LEVEL WINDS AS ROSA IS AND IN COOLER WATERS.  
THE POSSIBILITIES OF TROPICAL ORGANIZATION FOR THIS SYSTEM HAVE 
DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY UNDER THIS ENVIRONMENT AS EVIDENCED BY 
ITS QUICKLY DIMINISHING CONVECTION.  

SUBTROPICAL RIDGE HAS SHIFTED N AND PREVIOUS TRADEWIND FLOW 
DIMINISHED BELOW 20 KT.  LONG PERIOD NW SWELL TRAIN CONTINUES TO 
PROPAGATE SE INTO BASIN...BUT REPORTED HEIGHTS ARE 2-3 FT HIGHER 
THAN MODEL GUIDANCE.  FORECAST LEAN TOWARD REPORTS OF 12 FT VICE 
THE 8-9 FT SOLUTION.

GAP WINDS...SURFACE HIGH PRES OVER GULF OF MEXICO ALLOW GAP WIND 
PULSES INTO GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TO REACH 25 KT WELL AHEAD OF 
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.  IT IS ALSO EXPECTED TO REACH GALE FORCE 
STRENGTH EARLIER...EARLY TUE...AHEAD OF COLD FRONT MOVING 
THROUGH WESTERN GULF...AND LASTING WELL BEYOND FORECAST PERIOD. 

FURTHER SOUTH...GULF OF PAPAGAYO GAP DRAINAGE EASTERLIES 
EXPECTED TO INCREASE...MAINLY IN EARLY MORNING HOURS...BUT 
REMAIN AT FRESH BREEZE STRENGTH OR LESS THROUGH TUE...ALBEIT 
STRONGER BEYOND FORECAST PERIOD.  

$$
WALLY BARNES