000
AXPZ20 KNHC 050315
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON NOV 5 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 09N86W TO 06N96W TO 
10N104W. MONSOON TROUGH RESUMES SW OF ROSA FROM 11N123W TO 
09N130W THEN ITCZ TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 120W AND 133W.

...DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRES RIDGE ORIENTED NE-SW FROM BROOKINGS OREGON TO 25N150W 
WITH 1028 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 36N135W. BROAD RIDGING AND STABLE
AIR PREVAILS OVER MOST OF DISCUSSION AREA N OF THE CONVERGENCE 
ZONE BOUNDARY. SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS MODERATE NE TRADE WINDS 
WITHIN 200 NM N OF THE ITCZ. ASCAT PASSING DIRECTLY OVER POST- 
TROPICAL REMNANT LOW ROSA AT 1724 UTC SHOWED 20-25 WINDS AROUND 
THE WELL-DEFINED CENTER WHILE WINDS AROUND THE LOW CENTERED NEAR 
16N109W WERE 10-20 KT NEAR THE CENTER...WITH 20-25 KT WINDS WELL 
NE OF THE LOW NEAR THE SW COAST OF MEXICO. ALTIMETER PASS AT 1800
UTC SHOWED 8-10 FT SEAS N OF 26N W OF 130W...ASSOCIATED WITH LONG
PERIOD NW SWELL GENERATED EARLIER THIS WEEK BY A HURRICANE FORCE 
LOW IN CENTRAL PAC...MOVING ONSHORE INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA.

EXPECT MARINE CONDITIONS TO STEADILY IMPROVE OVER THE NEXT 2-3 
DAYS...EXCEPT DOWNSTREAM FROM GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AS NOTED BELOW.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVER MOST OF THE DISCUSSION
AREA THROUGH MID-WEEK AS PRES GRADIENT RELAXES ACROSS THE REGION.
SEAS 7 FT OR LESS AND WINDS 15 KT OR LESS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
AREA W OF 105W BY TUE NIGHT. LOOKING AHEAD...AN UNUSUALLY STRONG 
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH WELL S OF 30N INTO BAJA CALIFORNIA THU... 
WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 11-12 FT BEHIND FRONT N OF 25N E OF 115W.

GAP WINDS...ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS AT 1542 UTC SHOWS 20-25 KT N
WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC N OF 15N. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS 
25 KT WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH TUE EVENING...FOLLOWED BY SUDDEN 
INCREASE TO GALE FORCE TUE NIGHT AROUND 7/00Z AS N SURGE BEHIND 
COLD FRONT IN WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO FUNNELS THROUGH THE CHIVELA 
PASS INTO TEHUANTEPEC. SEAS WILL INCREASE TO 13-14 FT IN THE GULF
BY EARLY WED...AND EXTEND DOWNSTREAM FROM THE ISTHMUS TO 12N99W.

$$
MUNDELL