000
AXPZ20 KNHC 040324
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN NOV 4 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ROSA NEAR 12.7N 121.2W AT 0300 UTC MOVING W 
AT 5 KT. CENTRAL PRES 1007 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 GUSTS 
TO 40 KT. PERSISTENT WESTERLY SHEAR IS WEAKENING THE CIRCULATION 
WITH LITTLE OR NO DEEP CONVECTION...RESTRICTED TO WITHIN 90 NM 
NE QUADRANT AND SEPARATED FROM THE LOW CENTER. ROSA IS EXPECTED 
TO DRIFT NW AND CONTINUE TO WEAKEN...BECOMING A POST-TROPICAL 
REMNANT LOW PRES BY SUN MORNING. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N86W TO 08N97W TO LOW PRES NEAR 
16N109W TO 13N118W...THEN RESUMES W OF ROSA FROM 12N121W TO 
09N127W. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 09N127W TO 08N132W TO 09N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM E-NE OF 
LOW PRES NEAR 16N109W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 75 
NM S OF AXIS W OF 124W.

...DISCUSSION...

BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED BY 1022 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 
29N137W EXERTS ITS INFLUENCE OVER LARGE PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION
AREA N OF 18N W OF 113W. SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS MODERATE TO 
FRESH NE WINDS BETWEEN 20N AND THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH. A WEAK 
LOW IS EVIDENT IS SAT IMAGERY NEAR 16N109W...AND SCAT WINDS SHOW 
SMALL AREA OF 20-25 KT WINDS NE OF THE LOW CENTER. 

BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES ASSOCIATED WITH AN ACTIVE NEAR-EQUATORIAL 
CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL PERSIST THROUGH MON FROM THE WEST COAST OF 
MEXICO NEAR 20N105W W-SW TO AROUND 10N130W...ANCHORED BY REMNANT 
LOW ROSA AND THE LOW CURRENTLY NEAR 16N109W...ALLOWING MODERATE 
TO FRESH E-NE TRADE WINDS TO PERSIST WITHIN 200 NM N OF THE ITCZ
AND LIGHT TO MODERATE CROSS-EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY FLOW SOUTH OF 
THE BOUNDARY. A COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY NW OF THE AREA 
SUN. LONG PERIOD NW SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH INTENSE 982 MB LOW WELL
NW OF THE AREA NEAR 35N150W REACHING FAR NW PORTION TONIGHT WITH 
SEAS BUILDING TO 9 FT N OF 28N. LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT WILL INTRODUCE COOLER AIR MASS OVER 
BAY OF CAMPECHE SUN NIGHT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO SEEP THROUGH 
CHIVELAS PASS INTO GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC MON. EXPECT N WINDS TO 
INCREASE TO A FRESH BREEZE MON AND INTENSIFY THEREAFTER.

$$
MUNDELL