000
AXPZ20 KNHC 032125
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT NOV 3 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ROSA NEAR 12.7N 120.8W AT 2100 UTC MOVING W 
AT 3 KT. CENTRAL PRES 1006 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 GUSTS 
TO 40 KT. CONTINUED WESTERLY SHEAR CAUSING THIS SYSTEM TO WEAKEN 
WITHOUT PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION...RESTRICTED TO WITHIN 90 NM 
NE QUADRANT AND SEPARATED FROM THE LOW CENTER. ROSA EXPECTED TO 
DRIFT W-NW AND CONTINUE TO WEAKEN...BECOMING A POST- TROPICAL 
REMNANT LOW PRES EARLY SUN. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY 
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 07N94W TO LOW PRES NEAR 
15N110W...THEN RESUMES W OF ROSA FROM 11N122W TO 08N132W. ITCZ 
EXTENDS FROM 08N132W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM NE SEMICIRCLE OF LOW PRES NEAR 15N110W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 75 NM S OF 
AXIS W OF 125W. 

...DISCUSSION...

BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED BY 1022 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 
28N135W EXERTS ITS INFLUENCE OVER LARGE PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION
AREA N OF 18N W OF 113W. SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS MODERATE TO 
FRESH NE WINDS BETWEEN 20N AND THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH. A WEAK 
LOW IS EVIDENT IS SAT IMAGERY NEAR 15N110W...AND SCAT WINDS SHOW 
SMALL AREA OF 20-25 KT WINDS NE OF THE LOW CENTER. 

BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES ASSOCIATED WITH AN ACTIVE NEAR-EQUATORIAL 
CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL PERSIST THROUGH MON FROM THE WEST COAST OF 
MEXICO NEAR 20N105W W-SW TO AROUND 10N130W...ANCHORED BY REMNANT 
LOW ROSA AND THE LOW CURRENTLY NEAR 15N110W...ALLOWING MODERATE 
TO FRESH E-NE TRADE WINDS TO PERSIST WITHIN 200 NM N OF THE 
CONVERGENCE ZONE...AND LIGHT TO MODERATE CROSS-EQUATORIAL S FLOW 
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BECOME STATIONARY 
NW OF THE AREA SUN. LONG PERIOD NW SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH THE 
FRONT WILL REACH FAR NW PORTION TONIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 9 
FT N OF 28N. LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT WILL INTRODUCE COOLER AIR MASS OVER 
BAY OF CAMPECHE SUN NIGHT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO SEEP THROUGH 
CHIVELAS PASS INTO GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC MON. EXPECT N WINDS TO 
INCREASE TO A FRESH BREEZE MON AND INTENSIFY THEREAFTER.

$$
MUNDELL