000
AXPZ20 KNHC 022105
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI NOV 2 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL STORM ROSA CENTERED NEAR 12.7N 119.0W AT 2100 UTC MOVING
SW 3 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT GUSTS TO 50 KT. PERSISTENT WESTERLY SHEAR 
CONTINUES TO DISPLACE THE CONVECTION E OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. 
NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION LOCATED WITHIN 120 NM E 
SEMICIRCLE. THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT SLOWLY W-NW AND WEAKEN
THROUGH MON...BECOMING A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW BY EARLY SUN. 
SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/ WMO HEADERS 
MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N85W TO 07N91W TO 11N108W... 
THEN RESUMES W OF T.S. ROSA FROM 12N120W TO 11N129W. THE ITCZ 
EXTENDS FROM 11N129W TO 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 93W AND 104W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 14N TO 16N BETWEEN 
106W AND 111W.

...DISCUSSION...

BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED BY 1020 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 
29N131W EXERTS ITS INFLUENCE OVER LARGE PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION
AREA N OF 18N W OF 110W. ASCAT SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS LIGHT TO 
MODERATE WINDS N OF 20N...AND MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS BETWEEN 20N
AND THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH DUE TO A STRONGER PRES GRADIENT N OF 
THE CONVERGENCE ZONE. ASCAT PASS AT 1805 UTC SHOWED FRESH TO 
STRONG NE WINDS ON THE NW PERIPHERY OF T.S. ROSA EXTEND ABOUT 150
FROM THE CENTER...WITH MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS EVIDENT CLOSE TO 
THE CENTER IN THE SW QUADRANT.

ASCAT PASS 1623 UTC SHOWED FRESH TO STRONG N-NE WINDS DOWNSTREAM 
FROM THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IN A NARROW SWATH ABOUT 40 NM WIDE 
EXTENDING FROM THE COASTLINE NEAR 16N95W TO 14.5N96W. WINDS IN 
THE SW GULF OF MEXICO ARE ANTICYCLONIC AROUND A HIGH NEAR 27N89W 
WHICH DOES NOT SUPPORT A STRONG GAP WIND EVENT OTHER THAN DIURNAL
EPISODES OF GUSTY WINDS SPILLING THROUGH THE ISTHMUS DUE TO HIGH 
PRES NE AND LOWER PRES SW ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH WAS CAPTURED BY
THE SCAT PASS EARLIER TODAY. EXPECT THE TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH
SAT NIGHT WHILE HIGH PRES REMAINS STATIONARY OVER THE NE GULF OF 
MEXICO...BUT SEAS WILL BE WELL BELOW 8 FT IN TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH 
THE WEEKEND...WITH A MAX OF ABOUT 6-7 FT DURING PEAK WINDS.

BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES ASSOCIATED WITH AN ACTIVE NEAR-EQUATORIAL 
CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL PERSIST THROUGH MON FROM THE WEST COAST OF 
MEXICO NEAR 20N105W W-SW TO AROUND 10N130W...ANCHORED BY REMNANT 
LOW POST-TROPICAL ROSA. THIS WILL ALLOW MODERATE TO FRESH E-NE 
TRADE WINDS TO PERSIST WITHIN 200 NM N OF THE CONVERGENCE ZONE...
AND LIGHT TO MODERATE CROSS-EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY FLOW SOUTH OF 
THE BOUNDARY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BECOME STATIONARY NW OF 
THE AREA SUN. LONG PERIOD NW SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL
REACH FAR NW PORTION BY SAT NIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 10 FT MON
N OF 28N BETWEEN 125W AND 135W. LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

$$
MUNDELL