000
AXPZ20 KNHC 021518
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI NOV 02 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
TROPICAL STORM ROSA CENTERED NEAR 13.2N 118.6W AT 1500 UTC 
MOVING SW 2 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 
1006 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS TO 45 KT. 
PERSISTENT WESTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO DISPLACE THE CONVECTION 
E-SE OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM SE SEMICIRCLE. THE STORM IS EXPECTED 
TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY AND THROUGH LATE FRI. A LARGE 
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE VERTICAL SHEAR IN 
ABOUT 48 HOURS AND CAUSE ROSA TO TRANSITION INTO A REMNANT LOW 
BY EARLY SUN. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/ WMO 
HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH 9N84W 7N95W 12N108W TO 10N130W. ITCZ FROM 10N130W 
TO 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 
200 NM N AND 100 NM S OF AXIS FROM 103W-106W. NUMEROUS MODERATE 
TO STRONG FROM 13N-15N BETWEEN 109W-112W.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA 
WITH AXIS FROM 32N130W TO 25N140W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS 
FROM THE SW U.S. ACROSS THEN NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA TO 20N130W. 
MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AND STABLE AIR AT THE 
MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS N OF 20N E OF 125 INCLUDING THE BAJA 
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND NW MEXICO AND FROM 20N-25N W OF 125W.
IN THE DEEP TROPICS AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS 
CENTERED NEAR 10N128W. ALSO IN THE DEEP TROPICS AN UPPER LEVEL 
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 2N96W. UPPER LEVEL 
DIFFLUENT FLOW IS ENHANCING NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM E SEMICIRCLE OF A 1010 NM SURFACE LOW 
PRES CENTERED NEAR 15N110W.

A 1019 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 27N135W WITH RIDGE FROM 
THE HIGH SE TO NEAR 20N113W. NE TRADE WINDS REMAIN RATHER LIGHT 
TO THE S OF THE RIDGE WITH SPEEDS OF 10-15 KT. THE PRES GRADIENT 
WILL TIGHTEN SOME SAT AND THE ELY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 KT 
FROM 13N-20N W OF 130W.

$$
DGS