000
AXPZ20 KNHC 020319
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC FRI NOV 2 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL STORM ROSA CENTERED NEAR 13.7N 118.4W AT 0300 UTC IS 
NEARLY STATIONARY. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 
MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 45 KT GUSTS TO 55 KT. PERSISTENT 
WESTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO DISPLACE THE CONVECTION E-SE OF THE 
LOW-LEVEL CENTER. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS 
WITHIN 150 NM SE SEMICIRCLE. THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN 
NEARLY STATIONARY AND THROUGH LATE FRIDAY. A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL 
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE VERTICAL SHEAR IN ABOUT 48 HOURS 
AND CAUSE ROSA TO TRANSITION INTO A REMNANT LOW BY SAT. SEE 
LATEST NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/ WMO HEADERS 
MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 07N100W TO A LOW PRES NEAR 
15N110W 1011 MB. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM S 
OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 90W-99W...AND BETWEEN 105W-110W.

...DISCUSSION...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES ANCHORED BY T.S. ROSA EXTENDS ACROSS THE
REGION W OF 110W...WITH WEAK 1011 MB LOWS NEAR 11N136W...14N130W 
AND 15N110W. A WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS NORTHERN 
PORTIONS...WITH A 1018 HIGH CENTERED NEAR 27N125W. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE STRETCHING ALONG 11/12N ACROSS THE BASIN IS TRIGGERING A 
FEW CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA OF LOW PRES.

EXPECT THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN THROUGH SAT 
AND REMAIN FIRMLY IN PLACE CENTERED NEAR 28N134W THROUGH THE 
WEEKEND...ALLOWING ENHANCED E-NE TRADE WINDS TO DEVELOP N OF THE 
CONVERGENCE ZONE. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BECOME STATIONARY NW OF
THE AREA SUN. LONG PERIOD NW SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL
REACH FAR NW PORTION BY SAT NIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 10 FT MON
N OF 28N BETWEEN 125W AND 135W. LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

$$
MUNDELL