000
AXPZ20 KNHC 012208
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU NOV 1 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL STORM ROSA CENTERED NEAR 13.5N 118.4W AT 2100 UTC   
MOVING VERY SLOWLY SW OR 255 DEGREES AT 2 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM 
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 45 KT 
GUSTS TO 55 KT. PERSISTENT WESTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO DISPLACE 
THE CONVECTION E-SE OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. NUMEROUS MODERATE 
TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 210 NM SE SEMICIRCLE OF ROSA. THE 
STORM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY AND DRIFT SLOWLY 
SOUTHWARD THROUGH LATE FRIDAY. A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS 
EXPECTED TO INCREASE VERTICAL SHEAR IN ABOUT 48 HOURS AND CAUSE 
ROSA TO TRANSITION INTO A REMNANT LOW BY SAT. SEE LATEST NHC 
FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/ WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 07N100W TO A LOW PRES NEAR 
15N110W 1011 MB. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM S 
OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 90W-99W...AND BETWEEN 105W-110W.

...DISCUSSION...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES ANCHORED BY T.S. ROSA EXTENDS ACROSS THE
REGION W OF 110W...WITH 1012 MB LOWS NEAR 11N136W AND 14N130W... 
AND A 1011 LOW NEAR 15N110W. A WEAK RIDGE PREVAILS OVER NORTHERN 
PORTIONS...WITH A 1019 HIGH CENTERED NEAR 27N125W. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE ALONG 11/12N IS SUPPORTING SPOTTY CONVECTION ASSOCIATED 
WITH THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES.

EXPECT SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO REMAIN FIRMLY IN PLACE THROUGH THE 
WEEKEND...ALLOWING ENHANCED E-NE TRADE WINDS N OF THE CONVERGENCE
ZONE. LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

$$
MUNDELL