000
AXPZ20 KNHC 011523
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU NOV 01 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
TROPICAL STORM ROSA CENTERED NEAR 13.9N 118.4W AT 1500 UTC   
MOVING VERY SLOWLY W OR 255 DEGREES AT 2 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM 
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 45 KT 
GUSTS TO 55 KT. WESTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO DISPLACE THE 
CONVECTION E OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS 
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 210 NM SE SEMICIRCLE OF ROSA. 
SOME GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS 
VERTICAL SHEAR INCREASES. THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN 
DRIFTING TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST LATER TODAY...LASTING UNTIL LATE 
FRIDAY. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/ WMO 
HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH 9N84W 7N100W TO LOW PRES NEAR 15N110W 1009 MB TO 
14N130W TO 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION  
WITHIN 100 NM N OF AXIS FROM 133W-136W.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA 
WITH AXIS FROM 32N127W TO 22N140W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS 
FROM THE SW U.S. ACROSS THEN NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA TO 23N118W. 
MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AND STABLE AIR AT THE 
MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS N OF 20N INCLUDING THE BAJA 
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND NW MEXICO. IN THE DEEP TROPICS AN UPPER 
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 14N125W. UPPER 
LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW IS ENHANCING NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM E SEMICIRCLE OF A 1009 NM SURFACE LOW 
PRES CENTERED NEAR 15N110W. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE 
YUCATAN PENINSULA TO 10N90W THEN SW TO 3N97W.

SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N138W TO 26N140W. BROKEN TO 
OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE N OF 20N E OF TROUGH TO 117W. LARGE 
SWELLS IN THE 8-10 FT RANGE ARE W OF THE TROUGH. THE TROUGH WILL 
DISSIPATE FRI AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE.

A 1018 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 27N127W WITH RIDGE FROM 
THE HIGH SE TO NEAR 24N118W. NE TRADE WINDS REMAIN RATHER LIGHT 
TO THE S OF THE RIDGE WITH SPEEDS OF 10-15 KT.

$$
DGS