000
AXPZ20 KNHC 010311
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU NOV 01 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0230 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
TROPICAL STORM ROSA CENTERED NEAR 14.1N 118.1W AT 01/0300 UTC   
MOVING W OR 260 DEGREES AT 2 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL 
PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 50 KT GUSTS TO 
60 KT. A 1706 UTC ASCAT PASS...AND A 1946 UTC WINDSAT PASS... 
CONFIRMED THE LOCATION. WESTERLY SHEAR IS DISPLACING THE 
CONVECTION E OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 12N 
TO 17N BETWEEN 114W AND 119W. ROSA MAY PRESENTLY BE AT PEAK 
INTENSITY. VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT 
48 HOURS. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO 
HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH IS FROM 08N80W TO 06N95W TO LOW PRES NEAR 14N110W 
1011 MB TO 16N113W. ITCZ IS FROM 12N130W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 13N TO 15N BETWEEN 125W AND 
128W...AND FROM 06N TO 09N BETWEEN 135W AND 140W.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION 
AREA FROM 32N123W TO 24N129W. DOWNSTREAM UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE 
TROUGH WITH AXIS FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TO 33N115W TO 25N120W. 
A 80 KT JETSTREAM IS NW OF THE RIDGE FROM 30N140W TO CENTRAL 
CALIFORNIA. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE TROPICS 
NEAR 13N130W. ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION DOMINATES FROM EQ-23N W 
110W. THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS S OF S MEXICO N OF 
10N E OF 105W. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AND STABLE 
AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS N OF 20N INCLUDING THE 
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND NORTH-CENTRAL MEXICO.

A 1019 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED TO 28N125W WITH RIDGE FROM 
THE HIGH SE TO NEAR 23N114W. NE TRADE WINDS REMAIN RATHER LIGHT 
TO THE S OF THE RIDGE WITH SPEEDS OF 10-15 KT.

COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE AREA EXTENDING FROM 
30N133W TO 27N140W. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AND EXTEND FROM 
30N128W TO 28N130W THU EVENING THEN DISSIPATE FRI. NW SWELL 
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BUILD SEAS 8 TO 10 FT.

A 1011 MB LOW PRES IS ANALYZED ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH CENTERED 
NEAR 14N110W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 11N TO 16N 
BETWEEN 107W AND 112W.

ELY WINDS 20-25 KT ARE BLOWING THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO ARE 
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL THU EVENING THEN DECREASE TO LESS 
THEN 20 KT.

$$
FORMOSA