000
AXPZ20 KNHC 291456
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON OCT 29 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
A 1006 MB LOW PRES LOCATED NEAR 14N114W IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE 
MONSOON TROUGH. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION REMAINS 
DISORGANIZED WITHIN 240 NM SE SEMICIRCLE. WINDS IN THE 20-25 KT 
RANGE EXTEND WITHIN 150 NM NE AND 240 NM SE QUADRANTS OF LOW 
CENTER. GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING 
THE NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BECOME LESS 
CONDUCIVE. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A 
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WNW AROUND 
10 KT.  

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 9N84W TO LOW PRES NEAR 14N106W 1007 MB TO 
LOW PRES NEAR 14N114W 1006 MB TO 11N125W TO 7N140W. NUMEROUS 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 3N-7N E OF 84W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS FROM 119W 
AND 128W.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS JUST W OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...WITH AN 
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION 
NEAR 12N110W TO 20N125W TO 32N120W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY 
AND STABLE AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS N OF 20N W OT 
110W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW IS ENHANCING CONVECTIVE 
ACTIVITY WITH THE LOW AT 14N114W AND ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH 
FROM 119W-128W.

SURFACE HIGH PRES RIDGE WITH AXIS FROM 32N135W SE TO NEAR 
24N118W. NE TRADE WINDS ARE RATHER LIGHT TO THE S AND SW OF THE 
RIDGE WITH SPEEDS OF 10-15 KT. SEAS ARE 8 TO 10 FT IN NW SWELL 
STILL LINGER OVER THE AREA FROM 15N-28N W OF 130W. SEAS ARE 
FORECAST TO SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT TUE MORNING. A COLD FRONT 
WILL REACH 30N136W TO 28N140W WED. A 1007 MB LOW PRES IS 
CENTERED NEAR 14N106W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG  
CONVECTION FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN 100W-105W. WINDS IN THE 20-25 KT 
WINDS ARE WITHIN 150 NM NE AND 180 NM SE QUADRANTS OF THE LOW.

NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO SURGE INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. 
WITH THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT IN PLACE OVER SE MEXICO...THESE 
WIND CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUE AND 
DECREASE TO LESS THAN 20 KT WED.

$$
DGS