000
AXPZ20 KNHC 281515
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN OCT 28 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

AS TYPICAL WITHIN A MONSOON TROUGH...THERE ARE A FEW LOW 
PRESSURE CENTERS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TROUGH. THE MOST 
CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE LOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH A 1006 MB LOW PRES 
CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12N111W. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS 
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
CURRENTLY WITHIN 180 NM SE QUADRANT AND 150 NM W SEMICIRCLE OF 
LOW CENTER. THERE IS CURRENTLY A MEDIUM PROBABILITY OF THIS LOW 
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HRS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N83W TO 12N91W TO LOW PRES 
NEAR 11N101W 1007 MB TO LOW PRES NEAR 12N111W 1006 MB TO LOW 
PRES NEAR 11N122W 1007 MB TO 08N133W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 
08N133W TO BEYOND 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 93W AND 101W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 
210 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 107W AND 114W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 180 NM N OF AXIS 
BETWEEN 119W AND 123W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM N OF AXIS W OF 134W. 

...DISCUSSION...

A 1021 MB HIGH PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 33N133 WITH A RIDGE 
EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 20N113W. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA 
WEAKENING OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS...THE FRESH TO STRONG TRADES 
THAT PREVAILED S OF THE HIGH HAVE DIMINISHED TO LESS THAN 20 KT. 
RESIDUAL NE SWELLS WILL MIX WITH A NEW SET OF NW SWELLS OVER THE 
WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA N OF 10N. THE COMBINED SEAS 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SWELLS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT 
COUPLE OF DAYS...SUBSIDING BELOW 8 FT BY TUE MORNING. 

GAP WINDS...
A COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE SW GULF OF MEXICO IS PRODUCING 
A SURGE OF WINDS THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS INTO THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC. THIS IS PRODUCING WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT OVER THE 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST INTO MON 
MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 20-25 KT MON AND TUE. 

$$
AL