000 AXPZ20 KNHC 252151 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC THU OCT 25 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2130 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL AMERICA NEAR 13N86W TO LOW PRES AT 10N95W 1008 MB TO 12N107W TO 10N120W TO 09N124W...WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO ITCZ AND CONTINUES TO 09N130W AND TO BEYOND 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG AND WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 124W-128W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 240 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 86W-91W...WITHIN 180 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 107W-112W ...WITHIN 30 NM OF TROUGH BETWEEN 95W-99W AND WITHIN 60 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 102W-105W. ...DISCUSSION... BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE DISCUSSION AREA S OF 28N AND 133W WITH THE ASSOCIATED ANTICYCLONE ANCHORED NEAR 20N110W. TO ITS NW AN UPPER TROUGH STRETCHES FROM NEAR 32N127W SW TO A WEAK CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AT 28N134W AND TO SW OF THE AREA AT 19N140W. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT IS NOTED OVER JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE BASIN EXCEPT OVER THE DEEP TROPICAL REGION E OF 129W ALONG AND NEAR THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH WHERE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED AS DESCRIBED ABOVE. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH EASTWARD TO THE N CENTRAL PORTION OF THE AREA BY SAT SUPPRESSING THE BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW TO THE S. AT THE SURFACE...A NEARLY STATIONARY 1025 MB HIGH IS ANALYZED JUST N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA AT 33N133W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SE 23N122W TO NEAR 18N113W. HIGH PRES GENERALLY COVERS THE AREA N OF 15N W OF 115W. A LOW PRES TROUGH OVER NW MEXICO EXTENDING INTO GULF OF CALIFORNIA IS COMBINING WITH THIS HIGH PRES FEATURE TO THE W TO SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS N OF 24N BETWEEN 114W AND 122W WITH WINDS OF 25-30 KT N OF 28N BASED ON PREVIOUS SCATTEROMETER PASSES AND ON WIND GUIDANCE FROM THE GLOBAL MODELS. SEAS WITHIN THIS AREA ARE IN THE RANGE OF 8-11 FT. THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT SLOWLY NW DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH THESE FRESH NLY WINDS SHIFTING W AND IN TANDEM WITH THE HIGH...MOVING OFFSHORE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. AS THIS OCCURS... NW WINDS OF 20-25 KT ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WILL INCREASE TO 25-30 KT BY FRI AFTERNOON...THEN SUBSIDE BACK TO 20-25 KT ON SAT. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD TO 6-8 FT ON FRI AND LIKELY PEAK NEAR 9 FT ACROSS N PORTIONS FRI EVENING. THE BROAD RIDGE IS ALSO PRODUCING FRESH NE TRADE WINDS N OF THE CONVERGENCE ZONE W OF 124W...WITH 7-9 FT SEAS OVER A WIDESPREAD AREA ROUGHLY FROM 11N TO 21N W OF 122W. EXPECT LONG DURATION AND FETCH OF FRESH TRADES TO BUILD SEAS IN THIS REGION TO 8-9 FT THROUGH FRI NIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING SAT. SW WINDS S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH HAVE DIMINISHED E OF 110W AND SHIFTED EASTWARD AS EFFECTS ASSOCIATED WITH INTENSE HURRICANE SANDY IN THE CARIBBEAN CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE E PACIFIC. THE SW-SW WINDS OF 20-25 KT EARLIER OBSERVED IN THE GULF OF PANAMA WITH SEAS TO 8 FT ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH BY EARLY THIS EVENING. ACCORDING TO AN OSCAT PASS FROM THIS AFTERNOON THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC N-NE 20-25 KT PREVIOUSLY NOTED HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY DIMINISHED TO 10-15 KT. EXPECT THESE GAP WINDS TO ONCE AGAIN BEGIN TO INCREASE TO NEAR 20 KT FRI MORNING...AND INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KT BY LATE FRI NIGHT AND INTO SAT MORNING WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8-10 FT. LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HRS. SUITE OF MODEL FORECASTS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT... INDICATING MULTIPLE WEAK CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH WITH LITTLE OR NO INTENSIFICATION LIKELY THROUGH SAT. $$ AGUIRRE