000
AXPZ20 KNHC 251606
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU OCT 25 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL AMERICA NEAR 13N86W TO 
10N96W TO 11N108W TO 08N126W...WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO 
ITCZ...CONTINUING ON TO BEYOND 07.5N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION NOTED SE OF TROUGH...N OF 08N BETWEEN 85W AND 90W.  

...DISCUSSION...

NEARLY STATIONARY 1025 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 31N130W 
EXTENDS A BROAD RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA W OF 110W. A LOW PRES TROUGH OVER NW MEXICO 
EXTENDING INTO GULF OF CALIFORNIA IS COMBINING WITH THIS HIGH 
IMMEDIATELY TO THE W TO SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS N OF 
24N E OF 122W...WITH WINDS 25-30 KT N OF 29N BASED ON OVERNIGHT 
SCATTEROMETER PASSES. SEAS ACROSS THIS AREA WHERE 8 TO 11 FT 
WITH HIGHEST SEAS NEAR 29N117W...OFFSHORE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA 
NORTE. THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT SLOWLY NW DURING THE NEXT 
FEW DAYS WITH THESE FRESH NLY WINDS SHIFTING W AND IN SYNC WITH 
THE HIGH...MOVING OFFSHORE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. AS THIS OCCURS... 
NW WINDS AROUND 20 KT ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE GULF 
OF CALIFORNIA WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT THIS EVENING...AND 
CONTINUE THROUGH SAT MORNING BEFORE QUICKLY SUBSIDING SAT 
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD TO 6-8 FT ON 
FRI AND LIKELY PEAK NEAR 9 FT ACROSS N PORTIONS FRI EVENING.

THE BROAD RIDGE IS ALSO PRODUCING FRESH NE TRADE WINDS N OF THE 
CONVERGENCE ZONE W OF 124W...WITH 7-9 FT SEAS OVER A WIDESPREAD 
AREA ROUGHLY FROM 11N TO 24N W OF 122W. EXPECT LONG DURATION AND 
FETCH OF FRESH TRADES TO BUILD SEAS IN THIS REGION TO 8-9 FT 
THROUGH FRI NIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING SAT. 

SW WINDS S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH HAVE DIMINISHED E OF 110W AND 
SHIFTED EASTWARD AS EFFECTS ASSOCIATED WITH INTENSE HURRICANE 
SANDY IN THE CARIBBEAN CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE E PACIFIC. 
AN OVERNIGHT 0314 UTC PARTIAL ASCAT PASS SUGGESTED THAT SSW 
WINDS IN THE GULF OF PANAMA HAD INCREASED TO 20-25 KT...AND 
LIKELY LINGERED THROUGH THIS MORNING...WITH SEAS 6-8 FT. WINDS 
THERE WILL SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 20 KT BY THIS EVENING AS SANDY 
LIFTS N INTO THE BAHAMAS.  

OVERNIGHT SCATTEROMETER PASSES SHOWED FRESH TO STRONG WINDS IN 
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC N OF 14N. EXPECT THESE FRESH GAP WINDS 
TO CONTINUE A FEW MORE HOURS THIS MORNING...THEN DIMINISH TO 15 
KT OR LESS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...THEN BEGIN TO INCREASE 
AGAIN TO NEAR 20 KT FRI MORNING...AND INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KT BY 
SAT MORNING. 

LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH 
THE WEEKEND. SUITE OF MODEL FORECASTS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT... 
INDICATING MULTIPLE WEAK CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS EMBEDDED IN THE 
MONSOON TROUGH WITH LITTLE OR NO INTENSIFICATION LIKELY THROUGH 
SUN.

$$
STRIPLING