000
AXPZ20 KNHC 250930
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU OCT 25 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 12N86W TO 11N96W TO 12N110W TO 
08N126W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N126W TO 07N140W. WIDELY 
SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM S OF THE
TROUGH E OF 120W.

...DISCUSSION...

NEARLY STATIONARY AREA OF HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 31N129W EXTENDS
A BROAD RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA.
LOW PRES TROUGH OVER NW MEXICO EXTENDING INTO GULF OF CALIFORNIA 
IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS N OF 25N E OF 120W...BASED
ON 1800 UTC ASCAT PASS YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. THE LATEST ASCAT PASS
AT 0500 UTC MISSED THE REGION OF HIGHEST WINDS BUT MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWS 20-25 WINDS CONTINUING SEVERAL MORE HOURS THROUGH EARLY FRI
WHILE WW3 WAVE MODEL INCREASES COMBINED SEAS TO 8-10 FT N OF 25N 
E OF 120W THIS MORNING. NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT IN THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA N OF 25N THIS EVENING...AND CONTINUE THROUGH 
SAT MORNING WITH SEAS GRADUALLY BUILDING TO 6-8 FT BY FRI NIGHT.

THE BROAD RIDGE IS ALSO PRODUCING FRESH NE TRADE WINDS N OF THE 
CONVERGENCE ZONE W OF 120W...WITH 7-8 FT SEAS OVER A WIDESPREAD 
AREA ROUGHLY FROM 13N TO 22N W OF 120W. EXPECT LONG DURATION AND 
FETCH OF FRESH TRADES TO BUILD SEAS IN THIS REGION TO 8-9 FT 
THROUGH FRI NIGHT. 

SW WINDS S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH HAVE DIMINISHED E OF 110W AND 
SHIFTED EASTWARD AS EFFECTS ASSOCIATED WITH INTENSE HURRICANE 
SANDY IN THE CARIBBEAN CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE E PACIFIC. 
LINGERING AREA OF 7-9 FT SEAS IS LOCATED FROM 06N TO 11N BETWEEN 
87W AND 100W...AS SCATTEROMETER PASSES SHOW AREA OF ENHANCED SW 
WINDS S OF THE TROUGH CONTRACTING GREATLY OVER MOST OF THE AREA. 

ASCAT PASS AT 0315 UTC SHOWED FRESH TO STRONG WINDS IN THE GULF 
OF TEHUANTEPEC N OF 15N...WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS SCAT 
PASSES. EXPECT FRESH GAP WINDS TO CONTINUE A FEW MORE HOURS THIS 
MORNING...THEN DIMINISH TO 15 KT OR LESS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 
FRI EVENING. GFS MODEL SHOWS N-NE WINDS REDEVELOPING FRI NIGHT 
AND SAT AS MODERATE TO FRESH N WINDS IN THE WESTERN GULF OF 
MEXICO SURGES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC.

LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH 
THE WEEKEND. SUITE OF MODEL FORECASTS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT... 
INDICATING MULTIPLE WEAK CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS EMBEDDED IN THE 
MONSOON TROUGH WITH LITTLE OR NO INTENSIFICATION LIKELY THROUGH 
SUN.

$$
MUNDELL