000
AXPZ20 KNHC 240925
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED OCT 24 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 11N86W TO 12N107W TO 08N127W. 
THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 08N127W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
TROUGH BETWEEN 93W AND 118W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN AREA OF BUILDING HIGH PRES OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL WATERS 
CENTERED NEAR 31N136W WILL SHIFT E ALONG 31N THROUGH THU. 
PRESENCE OF LOW PRES TROUGH OVER NW MEXICO AND BAJA CALIFORNIA 
WILL TIGHTEN THE PRES GRADIENT OVER THE NE PORTION...BRINGING 
FRESH TO STRONG N-NW WINDS W OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. EXPECT 20-25 
KT WINDS TO GRADUALLY EXPAND SWD TO NEAR 25N BY THU BETWEEN 115W 
AND 123W...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 10 FT. 

CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH LARGE TROPICAL STORM SANDY IN THE SW 
CARIBBEAN IS STRENGTHENING W-SW WIND FLOW S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH
EXTENDING INTO NICARAGUA. MOIST CONVERGENT MONSOONAL FLOW WILL 
PRODUCE WIDESPREAD AREAS OF RAIN WITH OCCASIONAL MODERATE TO 
HEAVY SQUALLS ACROSS PANAMA AND COSTA RICA.... GRADUALLY SHIFTING
N INTO NICARAGUA THROUGH THU...WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE 
IN HEAVIER DOWNPOURS.

SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS FRESH NW WINDS ALONG THE W COAST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA...MODERATE TO FRESH SW WINDS S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH 
E OF 115W...AND GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS ELSEWHERE. AN 
EARLIER OSCAT PASS AT 1800 UTC INDICATED 25 KT WINDS ARE PRESENT
IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND T.S. SANDY IN 
COMBINATION WITH A WEAK RIDGE THAT NOSES SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE SE 
GULF OF MEXICO IS SUPPORTING ENHANCED WINDS THROUGH THE ISTHMUS 
OF TEHUANTEPEC...WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO PULSE BETWEEN 15-30 KT 
THROUGH EARLY THU...THEN DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS THU AFTERNOON.

SUITE OF MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES MULTIPLE WEAK/MODERATE CYCLONIC
CIRCULATIONS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH OVER THE NEXT 2-3
DAYS WITH LITTLE SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION EXPECTED. THIS WILL 
HELP KEEP A CONVERGENCE ZONE FAIRLY ACTIVE E OF 125W THROUGH FRI.

$$
MUNDELL