000 AXPZ20 KNHC 232205 RRA TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC TUE OCT 23 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2145 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 12N87W TO 11N112W TO 09N121W TO 08N131W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO THE ITCZ TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION EXISTS FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 96W AND 101W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N OF HE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 108W AND 116W...AND ALSO WITHIN 60 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 102W AND 105W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 111W AND 115W. ...DISCUSSION... A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE NRN BAJA CALIFORNIA/SRN CALIFORNIA BORDER SW TO NEAR 28N125W. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF INTENSIFYING HIGH PRES BUILDS SE OVER MUCH OF THE NRN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THIS AREA OF HIGH PRES IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EASTWARD ALONG 31N THROUGH THU...WHICH WILL TIGHTEN THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE NE PORTION OF THE AREA AND INCREASE N-NW WINDS ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. EXPECT NW WINDS OF 20-25 KT TO BEGIN N OF 27N E OF 117W BY LATE TONIGHT...AND GRADUALLY EXPAND SWD TO NEAR 25N BY THU BETWEEN 115W AND 123W. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 10 FT WITHIN THIS AREA OF WINDS. INTENSIFYING CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH LARGE TROPICAL STORM SANDY IN THE SW CARIBBEAN IS ACTING TO STRENGTHEN W-SW WIND FLOW S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WHICH EXTENDS ACROSS NICARAGUA INTO THE CARIBBEAN. EXPECT MOIST CONVERGENT MONSOONAL FLOW TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD AREAS OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED SQUALLS AND OCCASIONAL MODERATE TO HEAVY TSTMS ACROSS PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. THIS WEATHER WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTHWARD INTO NICARAGUA THROUGH THU...WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER DOWNPOURS. BOTH ASCAT AND OSCAT PASSES FROM THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON SHOWED LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE DISCUSSION AREA EXCEPT FOR MODERATE TO FRESH W-SW WINDS JUST S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH E OF ABOUT 110W. NE WINDS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ENHANCED BY THE CIRCULATION OF TROPICAL STORM SANDY LOCATED E OF THE DISCUSSION AREA IN THE SW CARIBBEAN ARE FILTERING INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AS N-NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT AS HIGHLIGHTED BY THE ASCAT PASS FROM 1632 UTC THIS MORNING AND ALSO BY THE OSCAT PASS FROM JUST PAST 18 UTC THIS AFTERNOON. THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND SANDY IN COMBINATION WITH A WEAK RIDGE THAT NOSES SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE SE MEXICO WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW FOR THE N-E WINDS OF 20-25 KT TO INCREASE TO 20-30 KT WED...THEN DIMINISH 20 KT OR LESS ON THU AS THE GRADIENT SIGNIFICANTLY SLACKENS. THE DOWNSTREAM EFFECTS OF THIS ONGOING GAP WIND EVENT IS HELPING TO MAINTAIN A DISORGANIZED OF CONVECTION N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 96W AND 101W AS DESCRIBED ABOVE UNDER ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT LOW PRES WILL FORM DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF IN THE NEAR FUTURE...BUT IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL NOT BE AS SIGNIFICANT AS WHAT THE GFS WAS DEPICTING DURING THE PAST FEW DAYS. $$ AGUIRRE