000
AXPZ20 KNHC 220947
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON OCT 22 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 12N86W TO 13N96W TO 12N106W TO 
09N124W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N124W TO 10N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM N AND 120 NM 
S OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 95W AND 119W.

...DISCUSSION...

WEAKENING COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION
AREA EXTENDS FROM 34N130W TO 30N142W. THE COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN 
AS IT BRUSHES PAST THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA THROUGH TUE THEN
DISSIPATE NEAR THE NORTHERN COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. STRONG HIGH
PRES WILL BUILD BEHIND THE FRONT TUE THROUGH WED...CENTERED NEAR 
30N132W WED THEN DRIFT NW TO NEAR 32N135W WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI.

SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS ACROSS MOST OF 
THE REGION...EXCEPT FOR MODERATE TO FRESH SW WINDS JUST S OF THE 
MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 98W AND 113W. GFS AND ECMWF MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES SW MONSOON FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT TUE MORNING S
OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 96W AND 100W...WITH SEAS TO 7-8 FT. THE GFS
MODEL CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY THE MONSOON CIRCULATION IN THIS AREA
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...AND IS BY FAR THE MOST AGGRESSIVE 
OF ALL GLOBAL FORECAST MODELS...DEVELOPING A TROPICAL CYCLONE BY 
WED NIGHT OR THU ROUGHLY NEAR 11N102W. WITHOUT SUPPORT FROM THE 
OTHER MODELS...WILL CONSIDER THE GFS SOLUTION AN OUTLIER AT THIS 
POINT AND WILL USE ECMWF MODEL AS BASIS FOR EXTENDED FORECAST IN 
GRIDDED DATA BASE FROM WED NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THE VARIOUS MODELS...SEEKING A BETTER CONSENSUS THAT 
WILL INSPIRE MORE CONFIDENCE IN LONG RANGE PROG.

MODERATE HIGH PRES OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH TUE 
NIGHT WILL PRODUCE MINIMAL LOCALIZED WIND EVENT IN THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC. DO NOT EXPECT WINDS TO CONSISTENTLY BLOW AT 20-25 
KT...THAT COULD GENERATE SEAS 8 FT OR MORE...UNTIL EARLY WED.

$$
MUNDELL